CAE forecasts global demand for 1.5m new aviation workers by 2034
June 16, 2025
A dramatic global shortfall in skilled aviation professionals may be looming if new workers are not trained in time, according to the latest Aviation Talent Forecast from CAE, released during the Paris Air Show.
The 2025 report estimates that 1.5 million new civil aviation workers will be required over the next decade.
Growing air travel demand and widespread retirements are said to be accelerating the need for training and recruiting new entrants across nearly every job category.
CAE predicts where the shortfall will be
The 2025 CAE Aviation Talent Forecast reports that 1,292,000 commercial aviation professionals will be needed – 267,000 pilots, 347,000 aviation maintenance technicians, and 678,000 cabin crew – by 2034.
The Asia-Pacific region is expected to account for the largest share of this surge in demand.
The business aviation sector will also feel the pressure, with the report predicting a need for 102,000 professionals globally, including 33,000 pilots and 69,000 technicians.
This year’s edition of the biennial forecast includes, for the first time, an analysis of air traffic controllers.
The forecast projects that 71,000 new air traffic controllers will be needed worldwide by 2034.
“The need for 1.5 million new aviation professionals by 2034 is being driven by record demand for air travel and a significant wave of retirements that is expected across all categories,” explained Marie-Christine Cloutier, vice-president for strategy, performance, air traffic services and marketing at CAE.
“With commercial and business aviation fleets expected to see double digit increases over the next 10 years, the industry must take action to attract, train, and retain personnel.
“Highly skilled aviation professionals are not just a necessity for the safety of the air transport system, they are the foundation for the successful expansion and resilience of the global aviation sector.
“To meet the demand, the industry needs to be proactive and creative. Adaptability and optimised training will be key to supplying the demand.”
Retirements and drop-out rates
In the United States, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) anticipates that approximately 4,300 pilots will retire each year over the next decade, even as airline fleets continue to expand.
Globally, the pattern is much the same. By 2034, the industry will need 129,000 new commercial pilots to replace retirees and a further 138,000 to support the sector’s expected growth.
The need for additional aviation workers is linked to the growing worldwide fleet.
The global commercial aircraft fleet currently stands at 33,000 and is projected to rise to 44,000 by 2034, marking a 35% increase over the next decade.
Although slightly below earlier forecasts due to ongoing supply chain challenges, the overall growth trajectory remains consistent.
Narrowbody aircraft, which account for 62% of the fleet today, are expected to make up 70% of the global total by 2034.
The report also highlights a systemic challenge: many students enrolled in aviation training programmes are failing to complete their qualifications.
The United States is singled out, where around 30% of paid air traffic control students reportedly drop out before completing training, according to data from the National Airspace System Safety Review Team.
