Airline net zero hopes hit by another disappointing year for SAF production
According to a new report published by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), while the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is slowly increasing, production remains just a fraction of the total aviation fuel used worldwide each year.
Consequently, the trade body is calling on the industry to do more in the adoption, with a four-point plan, so that SAF activities can be adopted more widely across the industry.
SAF production to reach just 0.8% of aviation fuel in 2026
According to IATA estimates published in a report on 6 June, global SAF production is expected to reach around 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, a figure that represents just 0.8% of the total volume of aviation fuel used globally, at a cost to airlines of $4.3 billion.
Speaking about the findings of the report, Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, said that 2026 was shaping up to be another “disappointing” year for SAF production. His comments come five years after the industry committed to working towards net zero by 2050, a target that some analysts now believe to be moving out of reach.
“The path to meeting 65% of our needs in 2050 is growing more difficult with each year of ineffectively sequenced government policies and oil companies’ manifest lack of interest,” commented Walsh.
He added that the current energy shock resulting from the conflict in the Middle East should have added even more urgency to the development of renewable energy supplies, including SAF.
However, despite this, Walsh said that neither the energy shock itself, the need to develop energy independence, nor the urgency to mitigate climate change had materialised, stagnating the market to develop SAF.
IATA’s four-point plan to increase SAF production
To accelerate the scale-up of SAF production and usage, IATA has called for coordinated industry action across four key priorities.
- For the industry to expand renewable energy supply to underpin SAF production and ensure sufficient feedstocks and clean energy are available.
- To ensure open access to fuel infrastructure, including pipelines, storage, and airport fuel systems, to enable fair competition and efficient distribution of SAF products.
- To strengthen policy support through effective sequencing of production incentives and investment frameworks that can provide certainty and reduce risk before any mandates are imposed.
- Enabling a global SAF market with sufficient volumes at commercially viable prices is critical for airline financial and economic sustainability.
IATA argued that a ‘book-and-claim’ system was essential to transform the SAF market from local to global by making it accessible to airlines and SAF producers regardless of their domicile.
The body concluded by adding that a global SAF market must also be supported by harmonised standards that create enduring rules and fair competition.
IATA warns e-SAF targets are detached from reality
Adding to its four-point call to action, IATA said that, along with SAF produced from biofuel sources, e-SAF (‘electro-SAF’) will also play a growing role in air transport’s decarbonisation.
The conversion of renewable electricity using a power-to-liquid (PtL) process can also produce e-SAF. However, unlike biofuel SAF, e-SAF does not require biomass or waste oils but does require large amounts of renewable electricity, green hydrogen, water, and carbon dioxide.
While the EU and the UK have mandated e-SAF production of around 0.6 million tonnes by 2030, global production capacity currently operating and under construction stands at around 0.02 million tonnes, with only one single production-dedicated site in operation.
IATA predicts that it would take approximately twenty commercial-scale refineries to achieve the mandated volume. Moreover, no new final investment decisions for e-SAF facilities have been made over the past year, said the organisation.
“The 2030 e-SAF targets by the UK and the EU are beyond unrealistic; they are utterly detached from reality,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist.
“It is a reckless energy market creation strategy to impose mandates before production is enabled. Such a strategy will only drive up the price. Coupled with penalties, it diverts scarce resources from being allocated to actual CO2 emissions reductions.”
Owens Thomsen added that this strategy had been “bewildering” given that Europe has the highest renewable energy prices in the world. She said that a serious strategy would first scale renewable energy production to drive its price down and then build the e-SAF production capacity on sound economics. “Only at that point can mandates achieve the desired results,” she concluded.
Passengers still back aviation decarbonisation
While the industry seems slow to adopt the mandate for SAF, IATA said that its latest passenger survey (published in April of this year) showed strong and consistent support for decarbonising air transport.
According to the report, 89% of passengers believe the industry should continue reducing emissions even if governments scale back their efforts, and a similar share sees flying as essential and as something that must be made sustainable, rather than restricting its use.
This support is backed by a willingness to act, said the organisation. Around two-thirds of passengers (66%) say they are willing to pay more to compensate for emissions, and nearly 88% expect ticket prices to rise as a result of sustainability investments.
Passengers also clearly favour “real” decarbonisation solutions, said IATA, with 25% prioritising the use of funds for SAF and 23% for emissions-reduction technologies, far ahead of taxes (which recorded support of just 10%).
Concluding its report, IATA said that sustainability was already influencing behaviour, with nearly half of travellers (48%) looking at carbon emissions when choosing flights, and over 85% of those who do say that it affects their decision. Around three-quarters say they prefer airlines with stronger environmental performance.
The conclusions of the IATA report are clear. While data shows that airline passengers are generally supportive of the transition towards the adoption of SAF and other innovations, the industry itself needs to be doing far more.
Taking a joined-up approach to invest in the production of SAF so that decarbonisation targets can be met is the best way forward, according to the organisation.
SAF scale-up in focus as industry heads to Amsterdam
The report has been published just a week before the aviation sustainability community gathers in Amsterdam for SAF Congress 2026, taking place from 17-19 June at the RAI Amsterdam.
The event will bring together airlines, fuel producers, policymakers, airports, investors and technology developers to discuss the scale-up of SAF production, policy frameworks, feedstock availability, book-and-claim systems, e-SAF, offtake agreements and the investment needed to move sustainable aviation fuel from niche supply to commercial reality.
Aerospace Global News is an official media partner for SAF Congress 2026, so stay tuned to AGN for all the latest news, interviews and analysis from the conference.
Featured image: Photofex – stock.adobe.com
