Analysis: Ukraine’s post-war air force takes shape with massive Saab Gripen E agreement
October 26, 2025
Ukraine’s Letter of Intent (LOI) provides for the rapid supply of a limited number of Saab JAS 39 Gripens next year. But most importantly, the agreement is about building a post-war modern air force for Ukraine.
The Gripen LOI has short-term and long-term implications
This week, Sweden and Ukraine announced an agreement to supply Ukraine with between 100 and 150 modern Saab Gripens. The deal appears to be effectively two distinct agreements. One is the near-term supply of 10 older ex-Swedish Air Force Gripen C/Ds, followed by the eventual supply of over 100 modern Gripen Es.
Літаки летять. 🇸🇪✈️🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/xLWytmX53d
— Sweden in Ukraine (@SwedeninUA) October 22, 2025
According to the Ukrainian President Zelensky, the first of Gripen C/Ds is expected to arrive in 2026 and is intended to help Ukraine fight the current conflict. Ukrainian pilots have been training on these aircraft for years now, so they should be able to enter service quickly once the airframes become available.
To no small degree, it is logistics that wins or loses wars. Currently, the Ukrainian Air Force is a logistical nightmare. Most larger European air forces only concentrate on two types of fighter jets (e.g., the Typhoon Eurofighter and F-35 for the RAF), but Ukraine now has Su-25s, Su-24s, Su-27s, MiG-29s, Mirage 2000s, F-16s, and soon Gripen C/Ds.
Sweden previously delayed the donation of the Gripen as it adopted the F-16 so as not to break Ukraine’s logistics by incorporating multiple types of Western jets simultaneously.
While the Gripen is touted as the best fighter for Ukrainian requirements, there just aren’t enough Gripens available. This is one of the major advantages of the F-16s; there are thousands of them with many being retired and made available every year. Around 90 F-16s have been pledged to Ukraine.
Now boarding pic.twitter.com/gPvRSk0ZZS
— Ulf Kristersson (@SwedishPM) October 22, 2025
By contrast, Sweden’s long-term plan is to have 120 Gripens in service by 2030, of which 60 are to be Gripen Es. This will free up around 37 older Swedish Gripen C/D airframes that could be supplied to Ukraine.
Although the actual number is likely smaller due to airframe fatigue, cannibalisation for new aircraft, and other factors. In the near term, it seems Sweden is only finding ten airframes for Ukraine.
Building Ukraine’s post-war air force
The provision of new-build Gripen E fighter jets will likely take eight to ten years to complete. This has more to do with helping Ukraine field a modern fighter jet air force in the long term than with fighting the current war. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said it will take around three years for Ukraine to receive its first new-build Gripen Es.
These Gripen Es will also be the first new-build fighter jets Ukraine has received since independence in 1991. Ukraine has had to rely on legacy Soviet jets it inherited from the defunct Soviet Union and other old Soviet fighters that other Eastern European air forces were ridding themselves of.
Donated Western jets (F-16s and Mirage 2000s) are also retiring hand-me-downs. While all these aircraft are capable, the Gripen E will be Ukraine’s first modern fighter jet.
This is a real threat if Russia scales up production and deployment – one air defence weapon system combination exists that could challenge it:
— Latin American Military Aviation (@LatinMilAv) October 21, 2025
Gripen/AESA radar/Meteor. Why it has not yet been provided is a mystery to me. https://t.co/oAwtT0obon
The shape of Ukraine’s post-war air force is now taking form. Once hostilities end, it seems likely that remaining Soviet fighters will be retired or stored. The backbone of Ukraine’s tactical fighter fleet will be F-16s, Gripens, and possibly Mirage 2000s into the 2030s.
The Gripen’s largest export order
This also amounts to the largest export order Saab has ever received for its Gripen fighter jet. After entering service in 1996, the Gripen performed sluggishly on the export market, with Hungary, the Czech Republic, and South Africa ordering limited numbers.
🇸🇪 The Swedish Armed Forces has officially received the first of many JAS 39 Gripen E fighters – marking a milestone for our Air Force and enhancing our capabilities to defend our skies. pic.twitter.com/PGipChvQDn
— Försvarsmakten (@Forsvarsmakten) October 20, 2025
More have since been ordered by Thailand and Brazil, with Peru and Colombia also moving to order the jet. Separately, the Gripen first saw combat with Thailand in 2025 during border clashes with Cambodia.
The Gripen E is the upgraded and most modern variant of the jet. The Swedish Air Force reported that the first example was only delivered to an operational Swedish unit earlier this week.
Featured Image: Government of Sweden
