The new transatlantic gateway? Inside Emirates’ high-stakes move for Milan

In August, Italian media revealed that Emirates was studying an expansion of its operation from Milan Malpensa Airport in Italy. The carrier, which already offers a bookable connection from Milan to New York-JFK (through its Dubai-Milan-New York route), has submitted a request to Italian authorities to grow the number of destinations it serves from the city.

It hopes to leverage Milan’s geographic advantage relative to Dubai, serving additional cities in the Americas, some of which may be out of reach for its aircraft. It will also seek to capture additional demand for its one-stop flights to the region through Milan’s catchment.

The report stirred debate across the country. On the one hand, service on otherwise unserved routes will have a positive effect on the Milanese economy. However, the planned expansion poses a threat to Italian carriers, particularly ITA Airways. The company was recently acquired by Lufthansa and was set to become a key pillar of the European group’s broader South America strategy.

Earlier this week it emerged that the group will also welcome TAP Air Portugal which has a sizeable network in the region.

Targeting the Americas: What Emirates wants in Milan

Italian daily Corriere della Sera reported in early-August that Lima (Peru), São Paulo (Brazil), Santiago de Chile (Chile) and Mexico City (Mexico) were among the destinations Emirates has requested to serve. Los Angeles in the United States also features on this list.

Neither Lima nor Santiago de Chile are currently served by Emirates, though the latter has historically been part of the network. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, Emirates flew to the Chilean capital via São Paulo (2018-2019) and Rio de Janeiro (2019-2020).

Los Angeles and São Paulo are already served nonstop from Dubai with an Airbus A380. Mexico City on the other hand is operated via Barcelona, Spain.

Italian support and airline pushback

The focus is on the Lima service, which is supported by a range of local business leaders and politicians, Corriere reported citing a letter. They argue that such a route would “constitute an essential accessibility, attractiveness and development factor,” highlighting that roughly 150,000 passengers travel between the two cities each year.

Proponents of the Emirates route argue that should the route be blocked, the UAE flag carrier would shift the Milan stop to Barcelona instead – meaning Italian business lose out.

Italian airlines are vehemently opposed to Emirates’ planned expansion.

ITA Airways, which benefits from Milan-originating feeder traffic for its Rome-based long-haul operation, will be directly impacted. The carrier is planning to launch a Lima route as early as next year, sources told Corriere. Although this is part of its South American expansion plans, it is also a strategic move to block Emirates’ entry into the market from Italy.

Other local carriers have also responded. Neos (a leisure carrier with long-haul flights out of Milan) and Aeroitalia (which has no widebody aircraft capable of long-distance operations), have also contacted the Italian authorities to plead their case against Emirates.

Both argue that authorising such a route would jeopardise national interests and competitiveness.

Aeroméxico also announced it will be launching flights to Milan

Though ITA has been quick to act, so has Aeroméxico.

A few weeks after the news came to light, the carrier announced it would be launching a three-weekly connection between Milan and Mexico City with its fleet of Boeing 787s. The carrier already serves Rome.

With Aeroméxico offering services between Mexico City and the Italian city, Emirates will no longer be able to use the argument that the route is unserved. The carrier’s flights will begin in March 2027 in time for the summer season.

Aldo Schmid, Head of Aviation Business Development at SEA Aeroporti (that runs Malpensa) described the route as being of “particular significance for commercial relations and trade between Lombardy and Mexico—one of the region’s major economies—which currently stands as the fifth-largest market in the Americas in terms of traffic volume to and from Milan.”

At present, Neos is the only other carrier aside from Aeroméxico to serve the Mexico-Italy market.

Emirates led a similar campaign in Barcelona

Emirates has used Barcelona as a stopover point for several services to the Americas, including Mexico City. Due to the airport’s altitude, Emirates is unable to fly nonstop from Dubai.

It fought a long legal and political battle for its Barcelona fifth-freedom operation, against the likes of Aeroméxico.

They argued that the UAE carriers’ entry would be particularly harmful. Aeroméxico successfully filed a complaint against the launch on legal technicalities, though this was short-lived. Mexican pilot unions were also vocal in their opposition to Emirates’ entry into the market, believing that the strength of the carrier could put local airlines out of business and drive up prices.

The Mexican government was very much supportive of the Emirati entry, and ultimately provided the necessary approvals. In December 2019, Emirates’ inaugural service between Barcelona and Mexico City took off.

Aeroméxico’s commercial response to Emirates’ Barcelona launch is particularly telling. The carrier began flying to the Spanish city several months prior to Emirates’ launch in order to protect the market. It started with just three weekly flights and increased them to daily from December. To do so, Aeroméxico was forced to sacrifice its route to Shanghai.

The company’s chief executive Andrés Conesa said at the time: “We’re cancelling the Shanghai operation to strengthen our Barcelona flights. We feel that it’s not fair, that is not the right policy […].”

Emirates’ fifth-freedom flights to the Americas

Emirates offers a handful of fifth-freedom flights to the Americas. Three of these operate via Europe, one each via Athens (to Newark), Milan (to New York-JFK) and Barcelona (to Mexico City). A further three fifth-freedom services do not touch Europe but instead land in the Americas before continuing on to another destination in the region.

Such is the case for its Miami to Bogotá flights, as well as its Rio de Janeiro to Buenos Aires services.

The strategy of launching fifth-freedom services allows it to overcome any operational constraints while also capturing local demand at the stopover points.

Should the UAE-based airline be allowed to expand its Milan flights, consumer choice from the Italian city to the Americas will grow. Simultaneously, this will weaken ITA Airways’ market position in a region considered the essence of its future growth.