China may soon have more J-20 stealth fighters than the USAF has F-35As
China’s fighter jet numbers are opaque and shrouded in secrecy, but it appears the number of PLAAF J-20s may be approaching the point at which they surpass the number of US Air Force F-35As.
As a disclaimer, China does not release inventory numbers (the US does), and it is unclear how many aircraft are lost to mishaps or are not combat-worthy (data points that the US discloses).
Around 500 J-20s now estimated in PLAAF service
In September 2025, China OSINT watcher @RupprechtDeino posted, “Hey !! J-20 serial number 63106 has arrived at the Changchun Air Show 2025… even more important, finally it is one where the construction number is visible: CB10300, aka from Batch 10 & the 300th J-20 in total!”
Hey !! J-20 serial number 63106 has arrived at the Changchun Air Show 2025.🥳
— @Rupprecht_A (@RupprechtDeino) September 12, 2025
It is assigned to the 19th Air Brigade and even more important, finally it is one where the construction number is visible: CB10300, aka from Batch 10 & the 300th J-20 in total!
(via @齐天的孙猴子) pic.twitter.com/WOoPYmXJJv
Due to Chinese secrecy, estimates are often educated guesswork, based on factors such as identified serial numbers and satellite imagery. It is not possible to confirm the serial numbers are accurate or used for messaging.
China also appears to have a de facto export ban on the J-20. This makes it more difficult to assess the capabilities of the aircraft, although it means all J-20s produced are for the PLAAF (unlike the F-35).
At the beginning of 2026, think-tank Rusi’s Justin Bronk estimated that China had 320-350 J-20s in service by the end of 2025 with an annual production rate of 120.
Updated estimate based on tracking by yours truly and Deino 😉
— Hûrin (@Hurin92) June 10, 2026
Includes serially confirmed 14 ABs and 3 TBs but doesn't include rumoured ABs which are receiving vanilla J20 from those who got J-20A/S or 3rd/4th gen units receiving their J20s.
All ABs are catalogued in profile. https://t.co/WWCR8fSms8 pic.twitter.com/ClBWJZLs7I
In June 2026, OSINT account @Hurin92 posted an updated estimate with @RupprechtDeino and calculated that China had around 500 J-20s in service.
Soon to be the most acquired fighter jet of any service
A recent article by the pro-Russian website, Military Watch Magazine, claims that the Chinese Chengdu J-20 is now the most-produced fighter of any service since the Cold War. However, this seems premature.
While there are multiple issues with this statement (including implied equivalence of the platforms), it is worth noting that the PLAAF has been acquiring the jet in massive numbers in recent years.
The only fighter jets that come close in terms of delivery numbers are the F-35 and Chinese J-16.
Taken together, US and Chinese fighter jet deliveries accounted for around 85% of all frontline fighter jet deliveries in 2025.
A total of 191 F-35s were delivered in 2025 to the US Air Force, US Marines, US Navy, and export air forces. This number was especially high due to lower deliveries in 2024, allowing Lockheed to clear stored aircraft refused delivery following issues with the Technology Refresh 3 update.
Lockheed has delivered over 1,300 F-35s of all variants to all customers, of which around 550-580 are estimated to have been delivered to the US Air Force. For now, this remains (marginally) above estimates of J-20 deliveries to the PLAAF.
Additionally, around 630-650 F/A-18E/F Super Hornets have been delivered to the US Navy since the type entered service in the 1990s. The final Super Hornets are on order by the Navy, and Boeing is expected to end production in 2027.
Get the latest aerospace defence news here on AGN.
Chinese PLAAF still lacking tanker aircraft
The transformation of the Chinese PLAAF is breathtaking, but also needs some qualifications. While China is acquiring new fighter jets at a rate of around 200 per year, its total number of jets in service does not appear to have grown.
This is because China had many obsolete aircraft like the J-6, J-7, J-8, Q-5, etc, and others in service. These appear to have been largely withdrawn from use, and some are reported to be retrofitted as one-way attack drones/cruise missiles.
In fact, IISS Military Balance data shows PLAAF combat aircraft (fighters/multirole/ground-attack) dropping from around 2,453 in 2007 to around 2,065 in 2025.
A notable area lacking in the Chinese PLAAF (at least for now) is tanker aircraft. China is estimated to have only a couple of dozen tanker aircraft made up of Ukrainian-supplied Il-78s as well as some configured YY-20As and H-6U/DU aircraft. The USAF has around 75% of the world’s tankers depending on counting methodology.
To compensate for the lack of tanker capacity, aircraft like the J-20 (and seemingly the J-36) are built with large internal fuel volumes. Something similar with Russia’s Flanker family.
Without tankers, the PLAAF will likely have the range to threaten the First Island Chain (e.g., Taiwan, some Japanese southern islands), but it may struggle to project airpower past that.
Featured Image: Wikimedia Commons
