Air cargo capacity growth outpaces demand
February 28, 2025
The global air cargo market continued its growth streak in January 2025, but rising capacity is outpacing demand, according to the latest data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
Total cargo demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK), increased by 3.2% compared to January 2024, marking the 18th consecutive month of growth.
However, cargo capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTK), rose by a steeper 6.8% year-on-year, with international capacity expanding even faster at 7.3%.
The increase in cargo capacity is occurring against a backdrop of steady economic growth. Industrial production rose 2.6% year-on-year in December, while global goods trade grew for the ninth consecutive month, up by 3.3%.
Manufacturing output also showed positive signs, with the global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for manufacturing reaching 50.62 in January, its highest level since July 2024.
However, the PMI for new export orders remained slightly below the growth threshold at 49.37, suggesting demand remains fragile.
“January marked 18 consecutive months of growth for air cargo, but the month’s 3.2% year-on-year growth is a moderation from double-digit peaks in 2024,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
“Similarly, yields, while still above January 2024 levels, saw a 9.9% decline from December as cargo load factors also declined by an average of 1.5 percentage points.
“While external factors such as trade growth, declining fuel costs and expanding e-commerce remain positive for air cargo, it is important to closely watch the evolution of market conditions at this time.
“In particular, the wild card is the potential for tariff-driven trade policies from the US Trump Administration. Fortunately, the air cargo industry is well practiced at dealing with shifts in the operating environment.”
Image credit: DSV
