Red Arrows scare-mongering
January 4, 2025
To a certain type of populist journalist, the Red Arrows display team has been “the gift that keeps on giving.” The team has provided a constant flow of tales of skill and daring over 60 years, interspersed with a series of ‘tragic’ accidents (destroying nine Gnats and 12 Hawks, and killing 13 air and groundcrew). There have been regular reports that the team might be stood down, falling victim to the latest round of defence cuts, or to shifting priorities in this or that defence review. In recent years, stories of a toxic culture, in which there was reportedly bullying, misogyny, sexual harassment and drunkenness also made the headlines, though many felt that the problems were exaggerated.
The latest story points out that no replacements have been ‘lined up’ for the existing fleet of ageing BAE Systems Hawk T.Mk 1s, which are due to be retired in 2030. This is hardly news! The Mail’s reporters suggest that the aircraft may have to be retired earlier than planned, or fly tamer, less dynamic displays, due to “the high number of hours flown.”
The Mail published a graphic showing the airframe life remaining for each of the 16 aircraft currently being used by the team at RAF Waddington in Lincolnshire, and for the 15 aircraft stored as reserves.
The Hawk has an airframe life of 12,400 flying hours, and the 16 Hawks currently in service with the Red Arrows have flown 8,939 hours on average. But the aircraft also has a finite ‘fatigue life’ or fatigue index (based on g loads AND flying hours) and one Red Arrows Hawk (XX227) was retired in 2018 after amassing ‘just’ 8,077 flying hours, but having ‘used up’ its entire fatigue life.
Only four of the team’s current Hawks have fewer than 8,077 hours, and two have flown 10,534 and 10,095 hours. On the other hand, two of the reserve aircraft have barely flown half of their airframe life!
The Ministry of Defence has said that the team’s aircraft will fly until the planned out-of-service date, and that “there are plenty of hours left to get them to 2030 and, indeed, well beyond if necessary. The out of service date is planned for 2030 and there are no current plans to extend this, with future aircraft plans for the Reds to be decided over the next few years post the SDR (Strategic Defence Review).”
If there is ever a need to reduce fatigue consumption on the team’s aircraft, some manoeuvres could be subtly adjusted to reduce g forces and without affecting the visual impact of the display.
