Russian Tu-95MS loss further reduces its ageing bomber fleet

Yesterday, a Russian Air Force Tupolev Tu-95MS ‘Bear’ strategic bomber crashed in Russia’s Far East. Reportedly, six of the seven crew died, while the seventh has been taken to the hospital.

This appears to be the second operational Tu-95MS write-off for the year.

Russian Tu-95MS ‘Bear’ crashes in Far East

The crash occurred in the Amur Region and was reported on the Russian Telegram channel Mash. The channel stated it crashed near the village of Krasnoyarovo.

At the time of the crash, there was confusion over whether the aircraft was a similar Tu-154, but it has now been clarified that it was a Tu-95MS.

The Ukrainian Telegram channel, eRadarrua, posted, “The Tu-95MS aircraft had its full crew on board. The aircraft was likely equipped with cruise missiles. The flight was carried out for the purpose of redeploying to Olenya airfield.”

According to the Oyrx blog, Russia had been visually confirmed to have lost eight Tu-95MS aircraft destroyed and three more damaged during the course of the conflict (mostly in 2024’s Operation Spiderweb).

This brings the visually destroyed count to nine (or 12 including damaged aircraft).

Russia’s Tu-95s (and Tu-22s) were built in the Soviet Union, and it can not replace them, making losses essentially permanent.

Operational vs non-operational Tu-95MS airframe losses

The loss is significant as this Tu-95MS was unambiguously an operational airframe. A catastrophic crash may also reduce opportunities to recover components for use elsewhere in the fleet.

Losing trained crew can also be as constraining for an air force as losing the aircraft itself. It’s unclear how many trained Tu-95MS crews Russia has available.

The Ukrainian attack in late August that blew off part of a wing of a Tu-95 appears to have been an inoperative example. Satellite imagery shows it was missing an engine and had been parked there for years.

Russia has many older Tu-95 bomber airframes parked around its airbases that will never fly again. Some claimed losses are de facto retired airframes.

Meanwhile, in July, Ukraine hit another Tu-95 at Engels-2. Satellite imagery shows that its tail was completely blown off, likely writing it off as an unusable airframe. OSINT accounts agreed that this had been an active airframe.

Russia’s remaining strategic bomber fleet

There are various estimates for how many usable Tu-95s Russia has remaining. Noted OSINT analyst Jakub Janovsky (who keeps the Oyrx blog) estimated for Fronts.co that Russia likely had around 30 operational Tu-95s remaining.

Notably, his July piece was published before the Tu-95 at Engels was destroyed and before yesterday’s crash. If Janovsky’s July estimate was accurate, subsequent losses would suggest the number may now be lower.

A Ukrainian intelligence assessment from late August 2026 puts the number as high as 38 Tu-95MSs in operational condition (47 on paper).

Janovsky also estimated that Russia has around 17 usable Tu-160s and 15 Tu-22Ms remaining. Other OSINT reports suggest Russia now has a fleet of 20 Tu-160s, having restarted its production/modernization programme.

Russia’s remaining fleet of Tu-22Ms is strained, with the type believed to be approaching the end of its useful life. One example has crashed each year in 2024, 2025, and 2026. Since the start of the war, Russia is now known to have lost four bombers to mishaps.

The Russian Air Force is confirmed to have lost nine Tu-22Ms, destroyed on the ground, and another three damaged (official Ukrainian claims are higher). Oryx lists tend to be conservative, and the actual number could be higher, as some strikes in Operation Spiderweb were never confirmed.

It’s worth noting that after Operation Spiderweb, Russia started using its prestige Tu-160 Blackjack bombers against Ukraine for the first time. One interpretation is that it now lacks the needed number of available Tu-22s and Tu-95s to make up a full strike package.