Passenger traffic to hit 22.3 billion by 2053
February 27, 2025
Despite challenges that include geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty and trade disruptions, Airports Council International (ACI) World anticipates substantial long-term growth in global passenger traffic.
ACI World, the global airports trade body, has released its Airport Traffic Forecasts for 2024-2053, projecting substantial long-term growth in global passenger traffic. It forecasts passenger numbers will hit 17.7 billion by 2043 and 22.3 billion by 2053.
Upward trend in global aviation
The airport industry body’s predictions cover 99.8% of global markets across 61 countries, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.4% from 2024 to 2043. From 2024 to 2053, the growth rate is expected to slow slightly to a 3% CAGR. ACI’s projections point to a consistent upward trend in global aviation, driven by factors including rising middle-class travel demand in emerging markets, stronger international travel, and ongoing investments in airport infrastructure.
And while short-term challenges persist, including geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, trade disruptions like reintroduced tariffs, and supply chain bottlenecks, ACI World’s Director General, Justin Erbacci, believes that “global air travel is poised for steady, sustained growth.”
He added, “It is crucial for airports, airlines, and policymakers to take bold, forward-thinking action to anticipate and meet the demands of the future. ACI World remains unwavering in its commitment to support its airport members, helping them navigate evolving dynamics and seize opportunities ahead.”
International vs. domestic traffic
Looking into the breakdown of traffic over the next three decades, ACI World forecasts that international passenger traffic will grow at a faster rate than domestic traffic. From 2024 to 2053, international traffic is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.3%, while domestic traffic will expand at a slightly slower rate of 2.8%.
The report also highlights the robust growth in emerging markets, fuelled by a rising middle class and greater demand for air travel. Investments in airport infrastructure in these regions will be key to supporting this growth.
Meanwhile, air cargo is projected to grow steadily, with a CAGR of 2.7% from 2024 to 2043 and 2.4% from 2024 to 2053. However, ACI World cautioned that evolving trade policies and supply chain disruptions could introduce volatility in this sector.
The report further highlighted that aircraft movements are expected to increase significantly, reaching 149 million by 2043 and 176 million by 2053. Airports will need to enhance operational efficiency and invest in infrastructure to accommodate this surge in growth.
