What Trump effect? US-Europe flights at record high despite warning of slowdown
July 4, 2025
Air travel between Europe and the United States is set to reach record levels this month, with more than 19,000 scheduled one-way flights – the highest ever for a single month, according to aviation analytics firm Cirium.
Cirium’s latest analysis shows that July 2025 will see 19,131 departures from Europe to the US, offering more than 5.1 million seats.
The figures underline a steady and sustained recovery in long-haul international travel and demonstrate growing capacity on transatlantic routes, particularly in the peak summer period.
Europe-US flights on the up
They are in contrast to warnings that the current US administration under President Trump has led to a softening of demand, with stricter border controls and the current domestic and foreign policy positions seen as contributory factors.
However, compared to last year, Europe–US flights are up 4%, while the growth is even more notable compared to pre-pandemic levels in July 2019, with a 13% increase in scheduled flights.
Over the last decade, the jump is even more dramatic. Transatlantic services are up more than 32% compared to July 2015, highlighting how the corridor has maintained its position as one of the busiest and most competitive international air travel markets.
The latest milestone coincides with the US Independence Day holiday on 4 July, when 621 flights are scheduled to depart Europe for American destinations, also a 4% increase year-on-year.
The modest recovery in business travel, combined with robust leisure demand, has accelerated this growth.
Consumer sentiment more mixed
Other metrics show a different picture.
Data released in June showed overseas arrivals to the US fell 2.8% in May from a year ago.
Travel from Western Europe fell 4.4% in May, led by a decline in travellers from Germany and Denmark, the US National Travel and Tourism Office said.
The same appeared to be true in the opposite direction.
Recent European Travel Commission (ETC) data showed that a third of US survey respondents planned to visit Europe in summer 2025, down 7% versus last year.
