Political shifts and the future of SAF
May 14, 2025
This underlying need for regulatory certainty underpins the competitiveness of European aviation, ventured Polona Gregorin, head of the Directorate-General for Climate Action at the European Commission; a department spearheading the Commission’s efforts to fight climate change at EU and international level. “The problem isn’t flying … it’s the emissions from the air,” she highlighted, cautioning against demonising an overall industry to which decarbonisation initiatives such as SAF are already helping make a positive impact. However, with the scaling up of SAF invariably requiring capital-intensive decisions, political certainty is required as soon as possible.
Duncan McCourt, CEO of Sustainable Aviation – an initiative launched in 2005 and which brings together major UK airlines, airports, manufacturers, air navigation service providers and key business partners – mused that although political routes and net zero rhetoric may be changing, the industry has a duty to remain “committed to the cause”. In the case of the UK Government, which he believes is “sticking with” this vital imperative, the upcoming carbon budget delivery plan due this Autumn is indicative of ongoing engagement. In McCourt’s opinion, however, opposing political groups Reform and the Conservatives are more likely to take a different approach to climate targets. This could well be a reflection of policy changes underway in the US.
In particular, within the US, the role of state support (augmenting federal funding) also differs depending on location, revealed Diana Birkett Rakow, senior vice president of public affairs and sustainability at Alaska Airlines. Whereas west coast locations first outlined a package of production incentives a few years ago (something which first attracted fuel producer Twelve), other states such as Illinois have prioritised tax offsets for purchasing SAF in-state. This, she continued, has “seen gallons flow” amid “some experimentation going on to see how these mechanisms work”.
Birkett Rakow also highlighted the need to “create a level playing field between SAF and renewable diesel” in order to reach required volumes – as well as more awareness within the consumer base to help keep pressure on the industry. Chief sustainability officer at American Airlines Jill Blickstein concurred, saying that federal support was indicative of “collaboration between airlines”. “SAF doesn’t have to be a partisan issue – it’s an issue of growth,” she added.
Notably, national SAF mandates should ideally be introduced concurrently with revenue certainty mechanisms, she continued, highlighting that “these costs [of mandates] flow through airlines immediately” (even if said airline has received no actual SAF to date). With mandates “still in their early form,” the “fuel suppliers are “handing their insurance premiums to us,” she said; concluding that these suppliers are also not necessarily investing these funds back into SAF.
With American Airlines hoping to take delivery of its first e-fuel shipment (from California-based Infinium) in the first quarter of 2027, this “bankable offtake…” was, however, “hugely expensive”. Highlighting the need for a combination of regulation and private sector investment to make this one-off agreement more palatable, “airline can’t afford more of these,” she explained. Additionally, with some uncertainty remaining as to whether the sector will actually be held to the 1.5 degree warming pathway (as initially set in the 2015 Paris Agreement), greater acceleration of second- and third-generation SAF pathways will also prove vital.
Ultimately, McCourt ventured that “governments are wise to avoid anything that looks like an extra cost on consumers;” a so-called ‘green tax’ that “risks losing support for the decarbonisation journey we’re going on”. Ultimately, while different systems “can handle different models – notably, the small levy imposed on consumers by the Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore from 2026, which will be used to further fund SAF initiative – a revenue certainty mechanism for producers “really can’t come quickly enough,” he concluded.
