ADS: Aircraft deliveries at strongest since 2019, but tariffs cloud outlook
September 4, 2025
Commercial aircraft deliveries have returned to pre-pandemic levels, according to ADS, the UK aerospace trade association, which reported that July 2025 saw the highest year-to-date total since 2019.
A total of 116 aircraft were delivered in July, bringing the year-to-date tally to 712. That puts the industry back in line with 2019 performance and signals a steady recovery in output from Airbus, Boeing and COMAC
Deliveries by aircraft type
Single-aisle aircraft deliveries have declined while widebodies have ramped up.
- Single-aisle aircraft: 589 delivered so far this year, slightly behind last year’s pace
- Widebody aircraft: 123 delivered year-to-date – the highest since 2019 and nearly 30% above 2024 levels
July’s total of 116 deliveries was down 4% year-on-year, but still the joint second-strongest July on record, equal to 2018.
Orders dip in July, but year-to-date totals surge
New aircraft orders slowed to 38 in July, a sharp 71% decline compared with the same month last year, when the Farnborough Airshow boosted sales. Despite this drop, the pipeline remains robust: 1,200 aircraft have been ordered so far in 2025, a 95% increase on the same period in 2024.
Widebodies played a larger role in the market this year, with 493 widebody aircraft orders placed so far in 2025.
The global commercial aircraft backlog has climbed to 16,166 units, a 3% increase compared with July 2024 and the highest ever recorded.
At current production rates, that represents more than 14 years of work for the UK aerospace supply chain and is valued at £255 billion to the UK economy.
Widebody aircraft now account for a growing share of this backlog, with an 18% increase compared with the same period last year.
Commercial engine market trends
The recovery in aircraft production has not been mirrored in engines.
- 68 engine orders were placed, down 66% year-on-year
- 232 engines delivered, a 4% decline compared with July 2024
- Backlog stable at nearly 29,900 units, unchanged year-on-year
Widebody engine activity showed the sharpest decline, with July orders down 90% compared to the same period a year ago.
Cancellations on the rise
ADS reported 139 cancellations by the end of July 2025, 56% more than the same period last year. While still a small share of total orders, the increase highlights ongoing volatility, much of it linked to new trade disputes.
The US administration imposed a 10% tariff on imported aircraft and parts in April, with a proposed 20% levy on EU goods still under review. Industry groups warned that higher costs could disrupt supply chains, delay maintenance and pose safety risks.
At the time, the Aerospace Industries Association warned these tariffs could disrupt supply chains, delay maintenance, escalate costs, and pose safety risks—especially as smaller suppliers struggled to absorb added costs.
The tariffs shook industry confidence. ADS reported that commercial aircraft orders dropped by nearly three-quarters in April 2025, with 19 orders compared to 64 in 2024.
“April’s orderbook is a telling sign of industry confidence,” said Aimie Stone, Chief Economist at ADS. “The uncertainty caused by tariffs likely continues to delay order decisions, while aircraft manufacturers have begun to re-allocate aircraft to avoid immediate repercussions of new custom duties.”
In response to Trump’s tariffs, China, previously Boeing’s biggest market, halted all deliveries, leaving roughly 10 Boeing 737 MAX jets in limbo. This move forced equipment to return to Seattle, straining Boeing’s cash flow and export revenue.
In March, AerCap CEO Aengus Kelly warned that a worst-case tariff scenario could result in Boeing 787 prices increasing by $40 million, potentially impacting fleet procurement.
Still, the industry seems to have adjusted to the volatility, sometimes resorting to clever workarounds to dodge or mitigate tariffs.
ADS scenarios for 2025 deliveries
Adjusting for what the organisation describes as “the unpredictable future”, ADS has provided three possible growth scenarios for the year:
- High growth scenario (in line with manufacturers’ forecasts): 1,340 aircraft delivered by the end of the year, 20% more than 2024
- Medium growth scenario (continues 2024 growth trend): 1,240 aircraft delivered EoY, +10% over 2024
- Modest growth scenario (output flat compared to H1 trend): 1,172 aircraft delivered EoY, +4% over 2024
While the first half of 2025 outpaced 2024, ADS cautions that the strong momentum may have been driven by inventory clearance and that second-half performance remains uncertain. Typically, more than half of annual deliveries occur in H2, particularly in Q4.
ADS estimates that commercial aircraft orders and deliveries through July 2025 are worth between £38–43 billion to the UK aerospace economy:
- Orders: £28–31 billion
- Deliveries: £10–12 billion
- Backlog: £221–255 billion
The industry outlook
That aircraft deliveries have rebounded in 2025 proves the industry’s resilience to headwinds.
“July’s delivery figures show an encouraging sign that industry is continuing to deliver at a stable and reliable pace,” said Stone. “Industry is currently on track to grow and could realistically meet our high growth scenario, which is a promising sign that the challenges seen throughout the first half of the year are easing.”
However, Stone added that “it remains uncertain how deliveries in the second half of 2025 will perform against previous trends and expectations. This underscores how industry must continue to strengthen supply chains, all in the context of navigating ongoing global uncertainty.”
