Air cargo traffic climbs in March amid trade uncertainty
April 30, 2025
Global air cargo traffic saw a notable rise in March, as new data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) suggests that businesses may have accelerated shipments to get ahead of impending tariffs linked to growing US-China trade tensions.
According to IATA’s latest figures, cargo demand measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs) rose by 4.4% compared to March 2024. International cargo operations performed slightly better, growing by 5.5%.
These volumes marked a new all-time high for March. Meanwhile, available cargo capacity increased by 4.3% overall, and by 6.1% for international markets.
“March cargo volumes were strong. It is possible that this is partly a front-loading of demand as some businesses tried to beat the well-telegraphed 2 April tariff announcement by the Trump Administration. The uncertainty over how much of the 2 April proposals will be implemented may eventually weigh on trade. In the meantime, the lower fuel costs—which are also a result of the same uncertainty—are a short-term positive factor for air cargo. And, within the temporary pause on implementation we hope that political leaders will be able to shift trade tensions to reliable agreements that can restore confidence in global supply chains,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
Cargo volumes typically recover in March following seasonal slowdowns in February, and this year’s growth was in line with pre-pandemic trends.
However, analysts believe the recent uptick may also reflect a rush to ship goods before new US tariffs on Chinese and Hong Kong imports take effect from 2 May, including the cancellation of duty-free entry on many items.
Contributing to the airfreight sector’s recent strength was a 17.3% drop in jet fuel prices year-on-year—marking the ninth consecutive month of fuel cost declines—alongside improvements in industrial output and trade. Global industrial production expanded by 3.2%, while world trade volumes rose by 2.9%.
Inflation trends may also have supported cargo flows. US consumer price inflation dropped to 2.4% in March, down from 2.8% a month earlier. EU inflation stood at 2.5%, while Japan’s rate edged down slightly to 3.6%. China, still grappling with deflation, saw the rate moderate to -0.1%.
Despite the March boost, industry observers warn that future growth could be at risk if trade tensions deepen or new restrictions further disrupt supply chains.
