Ryanair lifts profit forecast by a third after stronger Q3 performance
January 26, 2026
Ryanair has sharply upgraded its profit outlook for the financial year, now forecasting earnings around a third higher than last year after a stronger-than-expected third quarter highlighted resilient demand and rising fares.
Europe’s largest airline said it now expects full-year profit after tax (PAT) of €2.13bn to €2.23bn ($2.52bn–$2.64bn) on a pre-exceptional basis, up from €1.61bn ($1.91bn) in FY25.
The revised guidance implies a 33% to 38% year-on-year increase, materially above the airline’s previous expectations and underlining the extent of the earnings rebound despite regulatory headwinds.
Ryanair Q3 performance: Traffic up, fares up, profit down (but still positive)
Ryanair reported Q3 PAT of €115 million ($136m), down from €149 million ($177m) in the same quarter a year earlier.
Despite the year-on-year profit drop, the airline posted clear top-line momentum:
- Passenger traffic grew 6% to 47.5 million
- Load factor held steady at 92%
- Average fare rose 4% to €44 ($52)
- Revenue increased 9% to €3.21 billion ($3.80bn)
“Scheduled revenue increased 10% to €2.10bn as traffic grew 6% with 4% higher fares, thanks to strong October school mid-term and close-in Christmas/New Year bookings,” said Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary.
“Ancillary revenue was solid, rising 7% to €1.11bn ($1.32bn). Operating costs (pre-exceptional charge) rose 6% to €3.11bn ($3.68bn).”
Ryanair Boeing 737 MAX deliveries accelerate growth outlook
Boeing has now caught up with most of its high-capacity Boeing 737 MAX 8-200 ‘Gamechangers’ deliveries to Ryanair. The airline therefore did not receive delivery-delay compensation, which reduced its total income in the quarter.
“We expect to receive the final four Gamechangers (210 total) by the end of February, facilitating 4% traffic growth to 216m next year (FY27),” O’Leary added. “Boeing expects MAX-10 certification during summer 2026 and are increasingly confident that they will meet their contract delivery dates for Ryanair’s first 15 MAX-10s in Spring 2027, with 300 of these fuel-efficient aircraft due to deliver by March 2034.”
Italian AGCM fine dents Ryanair results
Ryanair’s quarter also included an €85 million ($101m) exceptional charge, described as “a provision for approximately 33% of the baseless Italian AGCM fine which our lawyers are confident will be overturned on appeal.” The airline says the full fine amounts to €256 million ($303m).
Italy’s competition authority AGCM issued the fine in December 2025, alleging Ryanair’s direct distribution was “an abusive strategy to hinder travel agencies relying on Ryanair flights as an input for tourism services.”
The airline is appealing the fine, citing a January 2024 ruling by the Milan Court of Appeal which found that Ryanair’s direct distribution model “undoubtedly benefits consumers” by delivering lower fares, is “economically justified in terms of containing operating costs and eliminating the costs associated with ticket sales intermediation,” and “contributes to a direct channel of communication for passengers requiring information or flight updates.”
O’Leary said of the fine, “Both we and our Italian legal advisors are confident that the Courts will overturn this AGCM ruling on appeal.”
Ryanair shifts capacity to lower-tax, airline-friendly markets
This winter, Ryanair has diverted capacity to regions and airports that have cut aviation taxes and are incentivising traffic growth. O’Leary specified Albania, Italy, Morocco, Slovakia and Sweden as favourable markets.
The airline has changed flights and cancelled routes, moving “away from high cost, uncompetitive markets like Austria, Belgium, Germany and regional Spain.”
The airline expects this trend to continue into Summer 2026, with Ryanair putting 106 new routes on sale, including three new bases in Rabat, Tirana and Trapani.
“We expect European short-haul capacity to remain constrained to at least 2030 as the big 2 OEMs remain well behind on aircraft deliveries, Pratt & Whitney engine repair delays continue for many Airbus operators, EU airline consolidation accelerates, and unprofitable airlines withdraw capacity from markets where they are unable to compete with Ryanair’s lower costs,” O’Leary said.
“Industry capacity constraints, combined with our widening cost advantage, strong balance sheet, low-cost aircraft orderbook and industry-leading ops resilience, will, we believe, facilitate Ryanair’s controlled profitable growth to 300m passengers per annum by FY34.”
Ryanair now expects stronger fare growth
Alongside the profit upgrade, Ryanair also lifted its fare outlook, stating that pricing trends in Q4 are running better than it previously expected.
“We now expect FY26 traffic to grow 4% to almost 208m passengers (previously 207m), due to strong demand and earlier than expected Boeing deliveries,” O’Leary stated. The airline’s costs are under control, with Ryanair expecting “only modest FY26 unit cost inflation as our B-8200 deliveries, fuel hedging.”
Ryanair expects these cost controls to offset higher ATC charges and environmental costs, as well as the end of its Boeing delivery delay compensation.
“While Q4 does not benefit from the Easter timing, fares are currently tracking ahead of last year, and we now expect full-year fares to exceed our previous guidance of +7% by around one to two percentage points,” O’Leary said. “At this stage, we are cautiously guiding FY26 profit after tax (pre-exceptional) in a range of €2.13bn to €2.23bn ($2.52bn–$2.64bn).”
Ryanair cautioned that FY26’s projected results are still vulnerable to “external developments in Q4,” including any escalating conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as “macro-economic shocks and any further impact of repeated European ATC strikes & mismanagement.”
For the market, Ryanair’s raised guidance is the headline, but the exceptional charge linked to Italy is a reminder that regulatory scrutiny can create sudden, material financial impacts even when underlying demand trends remain favourable.
Featured Image: Ryanair
