US sustains crushing edge in fighter jet production, sustainment over Europeans
October 4, 2025
A larger aerospace defence base, deep pockets, high domestic demand, and high export demand have led to the US developing a ‘crushing’ advantage in fighter jet development and sustainment over Europe. The same imbalance has emerged between China and Russia.
Only US and China can comfortably develop next-gen jets alone
The cost of advanced next-generation fighter jets is so great that it is incredibly difficult for any country, other than the United States or China, to go it alone.
This is why the UK, Italy, and Japan have partnered to develop the Tempest/GCAP fighter jet, and Germany, France, and Spain partnered with FCAS.
Developing jets with other countries is incredibly difficult. France initially partnered with Germany and the UK to develop the Eurofighter, but split off to build the Rafale alone.
History may be set to repeat itself, with disagreements between France and Germany may doom the FCAS project, with each going their separate way. If France does develop a next-generation fighter alone, it will have to do so with an eye for export, unlike the US and China.
While Russia has released mockups and animations with absurd claims about next-generation jets in development, there is little to no evidence that much progress is being made. Sukhoi Su-74 advertisements were seen as an endeavour to attract foreign investment. Something it appears to have failed to do.
Meet the @USAirForce's sixth-generation fighter, the F-47, bringing next-gen technologies to ensure air dominance for decades to come.#AFANational pic.twitter.com/eUEfW2JzD8
— Boeing Defense (@BoeingDefense) September 22, 2025
Meanwhile, the United States is currently rapidly developing the F-47 sixth-generation fighter jet, with the prototype now in construction and set to fly in 2028. Even so, there is debate in Washington about whether the defence base is big enough to develop two sixth-generation jets simultaneously. Some believe the Navy’s F/A-XX should be put on ice until the F-47 is further along.
Multiple Chinese advanced tailless demonstrators/prototypes have been seen flying in 2024 and 2025, demonstrating that China is also able to develop multiple programs at once.
The US’s ability to select from multiple choices
The United States and China appear to have a near-unique ability to select from multiple options. The US Air Force selected the Lockheed YF-22 to become the F-22 Raptor over the Northrop YF-23, and it selected the X-35 to become the F-35 over Boeing’s X-32.
The United States is known to have flown three demonstrators in 2020 for the sixth-generation NGAD program. These were built by Boeing, Northrop-Grumman, and Lockheed-Martin. China has a similar capability with Shenyang and Chengdu offering alternative solutions to the PLAAF.
This is not a luxury European states have. Typically, they have only one aerospace contractor able to develop an advanced fighter jet, e.g., BAE Systems in the UK, Airbus in Germany, Leonardo in Italy, and Dassault in France.
The UK is not able to select from multiple domestic industry solutions. Instead, it partners with other nations to produce a single demonstrator that ultimately needs to work.
France’s Dassault advertises its Rafale as the world’s only ‘omnirole’ fighter jet. The Rafale is an excellent aircraft, but it underscores how France is forced to go ‘all in’ on one platform and make it into the Jack of all trades.
By contrast, the US is free to develop specialized aircraft like the F/A-18 Super Hornet, EA-18G Growler, and F-35C for carrier operations and the F-15EX, F-35A, F-22, and B-21 for the Air Force. The B-21 is mentioned because the Rafale has a role in delivering French tactical nuclear weapons.
The US’s crushing advantage in sustainment
For the last 30-40 years, the United States has enjoyed a crushing advantage when it comes to developing and sustaining aircraft over the Europeans.
The Europeans can build excellent airframes, like the Eurofighter. But there is no rivaling the US’s ability to continuously pump billions upon billions into developing its fighter jet programs over the years.
The F-35 has been in service for 10 years now, and it is not considered a mature platform. Continuous upgrades, like the Technology Refresh 3, continue to transform the jet, ensuring it remains the world’s most advanced fighter. By the time GCAP enters service in the 2030s, it will need to compete with a future F-35 Block 5+.
Professor Justin Bronk of the think tank RUSI terms the US’s advantage as an “unbearable weight” and “crushing.” He notes the “crushing weight of US investment in state-of-the-art sensors, weapons and electronic warfare (EW), as well as stealth and constant upgrade and retrofitting programmes throughout its life.”
These advantages are not apparent in simulated video games. The true advantage lies in the classified capabilities not seen by the public. It’s the integrated sensors, battlefield picture, advanced communications, and other advances from inside the cockpit.
The same is true of China in relation to Russia. During the Cold War, China produced lower-quality licensed copies of Soviet jets. Today, not only is China racing ahead with advanced 5th- and 6th-generation designs, but its most advanced Flanker derivatives are generally considered more capable than their most advanced Russian Flanker counterparts.
Hey !! J-20 serial number 63106 has arrived at the Changchun Air Show 2025.🥳
— @Rupprecht_A (@RupprechtDeino) September 12, 2025
It is assigned to the 19th Air Brigade and even more important, finally it is one where the construction number is visible: CB10300, aka from Batch 10 & the 300th J-20 in total!
(via @齐天的孙猴子) pic.twitter.com/WOoPYmXJJv
While China has now produced over 5th generation 300 J-20 Mighty Dragons, Russia has only delivered its Su-57 Felon in the low dozens. Instead of upgrading and sustaining the jet, Russia is struggling to bring it up to its advertised capabilities due to its inability to source the needed Western components.
Importance of high production numbers
One of the most important factors in the production of any high-end weapon system is numbers. The United Kingdom only purchased 130 Typhoon Eurofighters. Overall, more than 600 Eurofighters and 300 Rafales have been produced so far.
By contrast, well over 4,600 F-16s and almost 2,000 F-15s have been produced. Lockheed Martin has already delivered 1,200+ F-35 Lightning IIs and expects to eventually deliver over 3,000 of them. In 2024, France’s Dassault ramped up Rafale deliveries to 21. In the same period, the US industry delivered around 150 fighter jets, while British production lines became idle.
High production numbers come with an important range of benefits. It means they are constantly in production, and so the money is there to constantly upgrade them. The current F-16 Block 70s and F-15EX IIs are worlds apart from early production models of the 1970s and 1980s.
It means there are plenty of parts and expertise to sustain the fleets. In commercial aviation, one advantage that older Boeing 747s have over Airbus A380s is that there are so many more spare parts for them, including from large numbers of retired jets.
By contrast, the limited production run of 251 A380s means airlines need to cannibalize their existing fleets to keep aircraft running. Many subcontractors have gone out of business, meaning components are unavailable.
Alex Hollings from Air Power argues that the Saab Gripen is technically better suited for the Ukrainian environment, due to the fact that it was specifically designed for that type of war by Sweden. It is designed to operate with minimal maintenance and operate in comparatively austere environments.
And yet Hollings argues the F-16 is the better overall solution for Ukraine. Mostly because there are numerous airframes available, parts are plentiful, and there is a wealth of expertise in servicing the jets.
