Power shift: Emerging markets propel passenger traffic to new heights
October 4, 2025
Global passenger air traffic is forecast to hit 9.8 billion in 2025, putting the industry on the cusp of a historic 10 billion milestone, according to Airports Council International (ACI) World. The airport trade body revealed the record-breaking figures in its World Airport Traffic Report (WATR) released on 30 September.
Emerging markets fuelling growth in passenger traffic
The surge in passenger traffic is in part being powered by emerging markets, with Africa, Asia-Pacific, Latin America-Caribbean and the Middle East leading growth. While international travel continues to outpace domestic demand, regional disparities highlight a varied outlook for the industry.
“Air travel is on track to reach 9.8 billion passengers in 2025, underscoring aviation’s role as a driver of global mobility and economic growth,” said Justin Erbacci, director general of ACI World.
While international travel remains the main engine of growth, “regional variations reflect a mix of structural strengths, policy challenges and evolving travel patterns,” he continued.
“To sustain air travel demand globally, regulators must foster policies and frameworks that enable improved connectivity, long-term resilience and sustainable growth.”
With demand for air travel soaring, ACI World is calling on regulators to advance safer operations, seamless travel, net-zero pathways and stronger connectivity as part of its campaign to ‘Transform airports, empower aviation and connect the world.’
Global growth driven by international travel
In its WATR, ACI World projects a 3.7% year-on-year (YoY) increase in passenger volumes compared to 2024. International traffic is anticipated to rise 5.3% in 2025, which is more than double the 2.4% forecasted growth for domestic markets. Even as domestic traffic volumes slipped by 0.7% by mid-2025, international traffic was up 4.9% YoY.
Regional highlights in emerging markets in 2025
Africa: Passenger traffic is forecast to reach 273 million (+9.4% YoY). This increase is driven by tourism and rising middle-class demand, particularly in Northern Africa.
Asia-Pacific: This region is expected to hit 3.6 billion passengers (+5.5% YoY). Southern and Southeast Asia will lead this growth, while the outlook for growth in East Asia remains cautious.
Latin America-Caribbean: Passenger volumes are projected at 789 million (+4.1%YoY). Growth in this region is supported by strong leisure demand and the expansion of low-fare carriers.
Middle East: Strong growth is also expected in this region, with passenger traffic reaching 466 million (5.9% growth YoY). Infrastructure investments and tourism flows underpin the growth in the Middle East. However, ACI also warned that geopolitical instabilities persist.
Slow growth in advanced markets
Compared to these emerging markets, passenger traffic growth rates in Europe and North America is slower. In Europe, the continent is forecast to surpass 2.5 billion passengers (+3.6% YoY), while in North America, it is expected to reach 2.1 billion passengers. According to ACI, domestic demand for air travel in Europe has been impacted by the expansion of high-speed rail links.
What does the strong growth in emerging markets mean for aviation’s next chapter?
ACI’s report underlines that the focus is shifting to emerging markets and particularly those in the south and east. Notably, Africa and the Asia-Pacific region represent long-term demand curves that could reshape global networks and investment priorities.
Much of the momentum for this growth in emerging markets can be attributed to rising incomes, growing middle classes, and the expansion of low-cost carriers are boosting demand.
This is a trend that is reflected in the International Air Transportation Association’s (IATA’s) latest report on air passenger demand for August.
In its regional breakdown for August, IATA’s data shows that airlines in Asia-Pacific achieved a 9.8% YoY increase in demand compared to the same month in 2024. African airlines saw a 7.1% YoY increase in demand for August, while in the Middle East, carriers saw an 8.2% YoY increase in demand.
During what is traditionally a peak summer travel month, European carriers saw a 5.3 % YoY increase in demand, while North American carriers saw a 1.8% YoY increase in demand.
Shaping a resilient industry that can sustain ongoing growth
Though it remains sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical developments and region-specific challenges, the global aviation sector is on track for continued expansion. The challenge now for airports, airlines and regulators is not just to handle the rising numbers, but to shape an industry that can sustain the ongoing growth in line with ACI forecasting double-digit growth to 18.9 billion passengers by 2047.
