Scaled-down Zapad 2025 shows Russia’s military strain from Ukraine conflict
September 15, 2025
After cancelling Zapad 2023, likely due to Russia’s massive losses and extensive requirements for its grinding war in Ukraine, Russia and Belarus are holding a diminutive rendition of the military exercise.
The scaled-down Zapad 2025 military exercises
The quadrennial Zapad 2025 (West 2025) military exercises between Russia and Belarus have begun. These are the first since 2021, as they were cancelled in 2023 due to the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.
As the Russian military remains bogged down in Ukraine, Zapad 2025 has been massively scaled down from the 200,000 personnel reported for Zapad 2021.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), quoting Lithuanian officials, around 30,000 personnel are expected to take part. It will include a larger percentage of Belarus personnel.
Of these, only around 8,000 troops are expected to be actually exercising in Belarus, with 6,000 of that number being Belarusian troops and just 2,000 being Russian soldiers.
The exercises are composed of two stages. Per ISW, the first is air and ground defence operations, while the second is “clearing territory of enemy forces” as well as conducting counteroffensive operations.
Background of tensions with the West
Zapad 2025 is sometimes viewed in the context of tensions between the Western NATO alliance and Russia, with Belarus seen as a Russian vassal state.
The exercise is widely seen as Russia flexing its muscles against eastern members of the NATO alliance, like Poland. Russia’s 2022 pre-deployment of its military in Belarus and subsequent invasion of Ukraine took place under the pretext of wargames with Belarus.
At the same time, the reduced status of the exercises shows that Russia is in no position to directly challenge the West in any major conventional way.
At the same time, Russia has shown its willingness to test the resolve of NATO with probing tactics, sometimes with plausible deniability. In September 2025, 19 or more Russian drones flew deep into Poland, with Polish and Dutch fighter jets scrambled to shoot them down.
This was the first time that NATO forces had kinetically defended NATO airspace in Europe. While US President Trump stated it could have been a mistake, Poland said there is no way it could have been a mistake or a result of jamming.
Additionally, Russia has been widely accused of GPS spoofing over parts of eastern and Nordic Europe, and its air patrols have violated NATO airspace, like Sweden in June 2024 and Estonian airspace in May 2025.
Zapad 2025’s aviation secondary to ground exercises
The Russian Air Force remains one of the largest in the world, although it has failed to crack Ukraine’s air defence.
Zapad features many Russian military aircraft, including Ka-52M and Mi-28NM attack helicopters, used to provide fire support for ground forces.
According to ISW, Russia’s Il-76 strategic airlifters are also taking part in training to fly behind enemy lines, something they have proved wholly incapable of in Ukraine.
The Russian MoD has also claimed its Su-34 fighter-bombers have practised conducting air strikes. With much of Russia’s tactical aviation ageing, Su-34 and Su-30/35 fighter jets have become the primary frontline fighters.
Ageing Su-27, Su-24, MiG-29, and MiG-31 jets are increasingly relegated to rear-echelon duties and patrols.
The event is set to see Belarus receive Russia’s nuclear-capable, MIRV, Oreshnik ballistic missile, which is sometimes erroniously reported in the media as ‘hypersonic’.
Separately, Belarus is continuing to receive its limited order of 12 Sukhoi Su-30SM2 Flanker fighter jets, first ordered in 2017.
