Ryanair confident in MAX 10 certification timescales; extends optimism to outstanding Boeing deliveries
Despite Boeing delivery delays continuing to impact growth, Ryanair’s traffic grew 9% to a record 200 million passengers during FY25; something Ryanair Group CEO Michael O’Leary attributed to the 7% decline in fares. However, with future growth intrinsically linked to a timely Boeing delivery schedule, the airline remains confident it will receive its outstanding units “well ahead of summer 2026,” – with the as-yet-uncertified MAX 10 to follow in spring 2027.
This albeit record-breaking figure of 200 million passengers was nevertheless caveated by a previous caution from Ryanair earlier this year. In January 2025, Ryanair revised its full year 2026 traffic target to “just 3% growth,” noting that it “no longer [expected] Boeing to deliver sufficient aircraft ahead of [summer] 2025 to facilitate FY25 traffic growth to 210 million passengers”. At the time, the airline also stated it expected to carry 115.3 million passengers in the first half of 2025 – up from 105.4 million year-on-year – “subject to no worsening” of delivery delays.
Factors such as the absence of a full easter in Q1, consumer spending pressure and “a big drop off in OTA [online travel agent] bookings” necessitated “repeat price stimulation last year,” continued O’Leary, confirming that operating costs remained “in line with expectations, rising 9%… as fuel hedge savings offset higher staff and other costs due (in part) to repeated Boeing delivery delays”.
Indeed, although Boeing complications continue to bite the low-cost carrier, Ryanair remains doggedly optimistic in the US manufacturer’s ability to deliver as promised. Ryanair’s current fleet stands at 618 aircraft, including 590 fully-owned 737s and 181 737-8200 (MAX 8) “gamechanger” aircraft (the latter total up five from year-end), with Ryanair confident that the remaining 29 units “will deliver well ahead of summer 2026”. This, explained the airline, would enable it to catch up delayed traffic growth into 2027.
Additionally, Boeing expects the 737 MAX 10 to be certified later this year, “and so we continue to plan for the timely delivery of our first 15 MAX 10s in spring 2027 (with 300 due by March 2034,” it continued. In October 2024, O’Leary had previously stated that “if we can get ten or 15 or 20 [MAX 10 aircraft], we’ll be doing well”.
However, with deliveries still currently constrained, Ryanair expects full year 2026 traffic to “grow by just 3% to 206 mililon passengers”. Nevertheless, it is also “cautiously” optimistic it can “expect to recover most, but not all of last year’s 7% fare decline,” which Ryanair hopes “should lead to reasonable net profit growth in FY2026”.
