Strategic bombers: US, China advance stealth designs while Russia clings to old Soviet solutions
August 10, 2025
As the US and China look forward to the next generation of strategic bombers to modernise their fleets, Russia is looking backwards to old Soviet designs. At the same time, its existing fleet is wearing out and suffering heavy losses due to the protracted war.
Status of the world’s fleets of nuclear-capable strategic bombers
The United States, Russia, and China are the only three nations that possess a nuclear-capable strategic bombing fleet. But these capabilities are growing; France is building a nuclear strike fleet at Luxeuil Saint-Sauveu, and the UK is purchasing F-35A to complete its nuclear triad.
The United Kingdom possessed a strategic bomber force during the Cold War with its Avro Vulcan bombers. These were even used on bombing runs in the 1982 Falkland Islands War before they were retired without replacement in 1984.
Of the world’s three strategic fleets, China’s is currently the odd one out, as the entire force is made up of Xi’an H-6 bombers. These are license-built versions of the retired old Soviet Tupolev Tu-16, which first flew in 1952. While China has updated these bombers, only a few are capable of in-air refuelling.
The United States Air Force is currently working to upgrade the old B-52 Stratofortress fleet to serve into the 2050s or even 2060s, and the next-generation B-21 Raider stealth bomber programme is progressing rapidly.
These B-21s are now in low-rate production and are set to enter service in 2027; they may even be combat-ready in 2026 if there is an urgent need. At least 100 and as many as 150 of these bombers will be purchased with a build rate of 6-8 per year.
Meanwhile, the B-1 Lancers are expected to retire in the 2030s, and the Air Force is allocating $7 billion to upgrade and maintain its fleet of 19 mid-life B-2 Spirits. In all, the USAF fleet is to maintain its fleet size into the foreseeable future.
The Chinese are working to develop their own stealth bomber, the Xi’an H-20, which is teased to enter production soon. Air and Space Forces Magazine suggested a large stealth aircraft seen flying in early 2025 could be the world’s first look at the H-20.
But things look dismal for the Russian strategic fleet. At the start of 2025, it was estimated to have a fleet of 110-120 strategic bombers in service.
Russia’s attrition and losses in Ukraine
Russia’s strategic fleet has suffered significant losses during the war in Ukraine. Poor maintenance or worn-out airframes appear to have also caused a number of Tu-22M Backfires to crash. The fleet suffered significant combat losses during Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb in June 2025.
A Russian strategic bomber type Tu-22M crashed. The reasons are unknown.
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) April 19, 2024
Source: Telegram / Mash, Sternenko pic.twitter.com/C6llS98Mpo
On that day, released video footage and satellite imagery show Ukraine damaged or destroyed 20 aircraft, mostly Tu-22 and Tu-95 bombers. While some of these appear to have been derelict aircraft, some were fully loaded with fuel and munitions for an upcoming attack.
Operation Spiderweb is the Sistine Chapel of special operations 👏👏👏👏 pic.twitter.com/hKyjJxqDxK
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 4, 2025
Since the beginning of the war, the open-source Oryx blog has tallied 11 Tu-22s (8 destroyed and 3 damaged) and 10 Tu-95 Bears (seven destroyed and three damaged) visually confirmed lost.
The Financial Times estimates Russia lost 20% of its active strategic bomber fleet in the Ukrainian operation.
Making matters worse, the Tu-95s and Tu-22s have been out of production for many years. This leads to a lack of parts and cannibalisation of existing airframes to keep at least some flying. The increased tempo of wartime usage has also accelerated the wear and tear on the aircraft, hastening their inevitable retirement.
Russia’s efforts to build new strategic bombers
Russia is aware of the inevitable coming crunch and has put the large Tu-160 bomber back into production. But this is not enough. So far, it is believed that Russian industry is only able to deliver these aircraft at a rate of 1-2 per year, and perhaps even less than one per year. Some or all of those that have been delivered have used incomplete airframes left over from Soviet times.
At this rate, it would take Russia a decade or two to just replace the losses in June 2025.
Russian media reports that new Tu-160s have begun delivering. However, the World Air Forces Directory 2025 has just 15 listed in active service, five fewer than were recorded in 2020. There have not been any known combat losses or crashes of the aircraft in those years.
Even if Russia is able to produce the Tu-160 in larger numbers, it is still a Cold War-era aircraft and an out-of-date design. The supersonic sweep-wing Lancer is the first bomber the US Air Force plans to retire. Both China and the US have moved on to developing next-generation stealth bombers.
On the modern battlefield, speed is not as important as stealth. When it comes to modern air defence, “you can’t run, but you can hide.”
Russia is also reportedly developing a next-generation stealth bomber called the Tupolev PAK DA. Very little is known about this aircraft, and it is unclear what the status is.
Russia’s military aviation production struggles
Russia’s production woes extend far beyond those of its strategic bombers. Over the last four years, Russia is estimated to have delivered 20-30 tactical fighter jets a year (Su-34s/Su-30/35s/Su-57s). This is not enough to maintain its existing tactical fleet of around 1200 combat-capable jets, and it has resulted in the Russian Air Force’s fighter jet fleet being on average older than its peers.
This is made worse by losses in Ukraine, skewing disproportionately to newer aircraft (like Su-34s) as militaries tend to use their more modern equipment on the frontline and relegate old aircraft (like Su-24s) to duties like peacetime border patrols. Additionally, over the last decade, Russia’s fighter jet exports have collapsed.
For reference, in 2024, the US produced around 153 fighter jets (F-35s, F-15s, F/A-18s, and F-16s). In 2025, that figure may grow to 220-250 largely thanks to an expected surge in F-35 deliveries. It is very difficult to estimate Chinese fighter jet deliveries, but they may be within the range of 150-250 per year.
Russia’s fighter jet deliveries are more on the level of France. In 2023, France delivered 13 Rafales, and it managed to increase that to 21 in 2024, only a little behind Russia’s estimated 24 fighter jet deliveries for that year. In 2025, Dassault plans to deliver 25 Rafales.
Russia’s industrial and economic capacity is a fraction of that of the Soviet Union. Even so, it considers itself a major power and so needs to keep up with the United States and China. As the US and China enter a new arms race and develop the next generation of strategic bombers, time will tell how much Russia can keep up and if it can even keep its existing fleet flying.
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