Russian fighter jet exports have collapsed: Here’s why its biggest customers have walked away
July 12, 2025
Once a dominant force in global arms sales, Russian fighter jet exports are now in sharp decline.
Decades after inheriting the Soviet Union’s military aerospace industry, Russia is seeing its traditional markets vanish.
A mix of Western sanctions, the war in Ukraine, and rising competition from China and others has driven a collapse in exports and cast serious doubt over Russia’s long-term role in the global fighter aircraft market.
From market leader to isolated supplier
During the Cold War, the Soviet Union exported fighter jets across the globe. After the USSR’s collapse, Russia inherited much of that industrial base and continued to supply countries including India, China, Vietnam, Algeria, and Egypt. But the 2020s have marked a turning point.
Russia’s remaining fighter jet customers now include Algeria, Iran, Myanmar, and Belarus, with even long-time partners like Vietnam, India, and Egypt cutting back or canceling orders.
According to SPIRI’s 2024 report, Russia has fallen behind France in global arms exports for the first time in decades.
CAATSA sanctions gutted Russian fighter jet exports
In 2017, the United States passed the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). The act introduced economic sanctions on countries purchasing advanced Iranian, North Korean, and Russian weapon systems. For Russia, it targeted systems like fighter jets and S-400 SAMs.
The immediate impact of CAATSA was devastating for Russian fighter jet sales. Not only have few new orders emerged since 2017, but it has also led to a wave of cancellations.
Egypt announced it was canceling its contract for around 20 Russian Sukhoi Su-35S fighter jets in 2019, Indonesia canceled its order for 11 Su-35S jets in 2019, while the Philippines canceled its order for Mil Mi-171 helicopters in 2018.
Meanwhile, other countries at earlier stages of negotiation were forced to look for alternatives. Serbia was expected to replace its MiG-29 fleet with Russian fighter jets, but it said that was no longer viable. Serbia has instead agreed to purchase French Rafales.
CAATSA doesn’t completely cut off Russian exports, as the US is somewhat pragmatic. For example, Vietnam ordered 12 Yak-130 combat training jets from Russia in 2018 without incurring sanctions. However, on the fighter jet side, the US has strongly encouraged Vietnam to purchase its F-16 Fighting Falcons.
Additionally, the US allows case-by-case exemptions, with the most notable example being India. For example, in 2022, India Today reported that the US passed a waiver allowing India to purchase Russian S-400 SAMs to allow it to more effectively counter China.
Russia’s few remaining customers
Russia’s only confirmed fifth-generation fighter jet export deal is with Algeria, which is believed to have ordered 12 to 14 Su-57 Felon jets. Six are scheduled for delivery in 2025, with the rest arriving by 2027.
Algeria also appears to have taken delivery of Su-35s originally intended for Iran, according to The War Zone Algeria is one of the highest spenders on defence, with 8% of its annual GDP allocated.
Iran has not been able to purchase frontline fighters since the F-14 Tomcats it received from the US in 1979. The Soviet Union was also wary of Iran exporting Islamic revolution to its Muslim-majority areas, and so it also had an arms embargo on the country. That embargo was upheld by the Russian Federation for many years.
As relations begin to warm btween Russia and Iran, there have been persistent reports that Iran was negotiating the acquisition of up to 30 Su-30 Flankers, and possibly local assembly of Su-35s, though none were delivered.
In the wake of the 12-day war in 2025, Iran seemed to pivot to China for fighter jets and air defense. In July 2025, Newsweek announced China was willing to supply Chinese J-10C fighters to Iran.
Russia’s loss of China and India
One of the leading causes in the collapse of Russian exports is the complete loss of the Chinese market. China was once one of the largest customers for Russian fighters, including copies made locally under license.
China’s final order for Russian fighters was for 24 Su-35S jets. The contract was signed in 2015, and the last of the aircraft were delivered in 2018. It seems unlikely China will ever again order Russian fighters as it has moved onto producing its own, more advanced, platforms like the J-35 and J-20 5th-gen aircraft.
China is now capable of producing engines like the WS-15 for the J-20, but still imports Russian turbofans for some transport aircraft, though this reliance may soon end. Janes reported 2023 the Shenyang WS-20 turbofan for the Chinese Xi’an Y-20 military transport was entering operational service.
While India is now able to produce its own lightweight Tejas fighter, its defence industry is not as independent as China’s. India has historically been a major customer for Russia’s equipment, but in recent years, it has sought to diversify by buying French Rafales, increasing domestic development, and purchasing more US-made equipment.
India remains a market for Russian fighters and is ordering 12 more Su-30MKI fighters to replace accumulated losses. However, these are not exported Russian fighters. These are produced domestically by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited under license.
War in Ukraine weakens production
The 2022 invasion of Ukraine made Russia’s precarious position even worse. Despite switching to a war time economy, Russia has been unable to ramp up fighter jet production partly due to sanctions disrupting critical supply chains and foreign component shortages.
It is estimated that Russia’s annual delivery of fighter jets in the years 2022-2024 amounted to between 20 and 30 jets annually. This includes all Su-30s/Su-35s, Su-34s, and Su-57s. The Polish news outlet Defense Express estimated just 24 were delivered in 2024.
That rate may offset combat and training losses, but it falls far short of what’s needed to replace Russia’s aging fleet of Su-25s, Su-24s, Su-27s, MiG-31s, and MiG-29s, all fast approaching retirement.
Russia’s low delivery rate gives it very little room for having surplus aircraft available for export. Defense Express reported in January 2025 that 550 of Russia’s 1,200 tactical fighters are now nearing the end of their service life.
For reference, in 2024, France’s Dassault was able to deliver 21 Rafales. Total US deliveries of fighter jets for 2024 amounted to 110 F-35s, 16 F-16s, 14 F-15EXs, and 11 F/A-18s. Lockheed is planning to deliver between 170-190 F-35s in 2025, while Boeing is receiving an extra $4.5 billion to ramp up F-15EX production.
Russia: From fighter jet exporter to future importer
With the Su-75 Checkmate still in development and likely delayed until at least 2026 due to financial and supply chain problems, Russia has few new-generation options to offer.
Meanwhile, Western defense planners, including the UK’s Professor Justin Bronk, now believe future airpower threats will come from China, not Russia. Some analysts even predict that Russia’s air force could eventually depend on Chinese jets to remain competitive.
In a twist of geopolitical irony, Moscow’s status as a leading supplier of fighter jets may be coming to an end, to be replaced by a new era where it turns to others for help.
It may be too soon to write the obituary for Russian fighter jet exports, but their golden age is clearly over.
