Russian MiG-31s breach Estonian airspace as NATO F-35s scramble
September 20, 2025
Estonia has accused Russia of an “unprecedentedly brazen” violation of its airspace after three MiG-31 Foxhound fighter jets entered sovereign skies on 19 September. The incident occurred near Vaindloo Island in the Gulf of Finland, where the Russian aircraft reportedly remained for around 12 minutes.
The fighters flew with transponders switched off, no flight plans filed, and made no effort to communicate with Estonian air traffic controllers. Italy, Finland and Sweden scrambled jets under NATO’s Baltic Air Policing mission.
Armed Russian fighters caught in NATO skies.
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) September 19, 2025
Swedish Air Force, part of NATO in Estonia, releases photos of Russian MiG-31 jets violating Estonian airspace. pic.twitter.com/H2AMV8Vi7P
Swedish JAS 39 Gripens responded, but the first to intercept were Finnish F/A-18 Hornets. They tracked the MiGs until the Italian F-35As arrived from Amari Air base, and escorted the Russian fighter jets to the Kaliningrad area.
Following a violation of Estonian air space, Swedish JAS 39 fighters intercepted and monitored three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets over the Baltic Sea today. Sweden is always ready to ensure the safety, security and integrity of our airspace together with our allies.#WeAreNATO pic.twitter.com/gpTbmngiKc
— Försvarsmakten (@Forsvarsmakten) September 19, 2025
Later, Russia denied violating Estonian airspace. According to the BBC, Russia claims the jets were on a scheduled flight and overflew neutral Baltic waters.
This is not the first time Estonia has faced such pressure. It marks the fourth incursion so far this year, though typically these involve transport or patrol aircraft straying over borders for seconds at a time.
The latest event is different; fast jets loitering inside NATO airspace for more than ten minutes signals a deliberate escalation. The MiG-31, a long-range interceptor capable of carrying the Kinzhal hypersonic missile, represents a far more pointed message than the usual lumbering Il-76 or An-26 transports.
Russian incursions into NATO airspace ramp up
The incursion is the latest in a series of destabilising moves across NATO’s eastern flank. Just over a week ago, Russian drones strayed into Polish airspace, prompting a high-profile response from NATO jets. Lithuania and Latvia have temporarily closed portions of their airspace after wayward drones strayed across borders.
Analysts suggest that these actions are part of a deliberate Kremlin strategy to probe NATO’s defences, test reaction times, and sow uncertainty about the alliance’s cohesion. By sending combat aircraft into Estonia and drones (albeit cheap, barely armed drones) into Poland, Russia is demonstrating both reach and unpredictability.
The tail-section of a “decoy” Russian one-way attack drone washed ashore today in Vārve Parish, Lithuania, believed to have likely been one of the drones used during recent incursions into Poland and the Baltic States. pic.twitter.com/tWqmkyQPqh
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) September 18, 2025
The choice of the Baltic region, long seen as a potential flashpoint, underscores Moscow’s desire to keep NATO forces stretched while signalling to domestic audiences that Russia can challenge the West directly.
Such prodding is unlikely to result in direct clashes but risks miscalculation. With NATO fighter jets on high alert and Baltic states enforcing stricter airspace controls, the margin for error is shrinking.
Estonia requests consultation with other NATO members
In the aftermath of the violation, Estonia summoned the Russian chargé d’affaires and issued a formal diplomatic protest. More significantly, Tallinn has triggered Article 4 consultations within NATO, a mechanism allowing members to convene when their security or territorial integrity is threatened.
According to reports, Estonia will use the session to press for a stronger allied posture in the Baltic, including increased air policing rotations and broader support for regional air defences. NATO has not yet confirmed the timing of the consultations, but Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has repeatedly emphasised that the alliance will defend “every inch” of member territory.
For Estonia, the MiG-31 violation is a stark reminder of life on the front line of NATO’s confrontation with Russia. For the alliance, it is another test of credibility: how to respond firmly enough to deter further provocations without tipping into escalation.
