An end to the premium seat boom? US airlines face more cost-conscious Holiday travellers, Deloitte finds
US airlines are facing headwinds during the 2025 holiday season as demand shifts away from air travel. Deloitte’s 2025 Holiday Travel Survey found that more Americans plan to travel, but fewer plan to fly. Those who will fly are trading down, tightening budgets and aggressively seeking value.
Much of the change can be attributed to the economic impact of recent policy. “This year, the season is unfolding against a backdrop of economic uncertainty,” Deloitte states in its separate Holiday Retail Survey. “Three-quarters of surveyed shoppers (77%) expect higher prices on holiday goods, and over half (57%) expect the economy to weaken in the next six months—the most negative outlook since we started tracking economic sentiment in 1997.”
In the holiday travel survey, the firm reports that “nearly 1 in 5 high-income travellers surveyed say they are worse off financially than a year ago, leading to a significant cut in travel plans.”
Deloitte’s travel survey is based on feedback from 3,896 Americans gathered between September 26 and October 3, 2025. Among this group, 2,099 respondents planning travel between Thanksgiving and mid-January are considered holiday travellers.
The premium seating market could be about to change
The firm’s findings on retail, along with its separate travel survey, show that consumers’ approach to seasonal trips is changing, which could threaten airlines’ multi-year investments in premium seating and high-yield strategies.
Since the COVID recovery, airlines have been installing new long-haul business-class cabins, launching premium-economy products, refreshing domestic first-class, and expanding airport lounges to court higher-spending travellers. But Deloitte’s data suggests an emerging consumer retreat from higher-priced air travel just as these investments mature.
For airlines counting on holiday yields to bolster fourth-quarter and early first-quarter financials, these headwinds could compress margins.
More people are travelling — but fewer are flying
Deloitte’s holiday travel-intent release reports that 54% of Americans plan to travel between Thanksgiving and mid-January, a five-point increase from last year. More will be travelling to visit friends and family, with fewer booking hotel stays.
Air travel is losing share. Only 47% plan to fly on their longest holiday trip, down from 55% last year. Among higher-income travellers — a demographic airlines rely on for premium cabin demand — domestic flight intent has dropped from 63% to 53%. International travel will increase slightly among low-income earners (10% versus 6% in 2024), but this cohort of travellers is more likely to book economy class seats.
The survey shows Americans plan to take 1.83 holiday trips on average, down from 2.14 last year across the season. That translates into fewer bookings per traveller, which may reduce aircraft load factors throughout the aircraft.
Shrinking travel budgets are the most significant emerging threat to airlines
Even among those who do fly, spending is pulling back sharply. Deloitte reports an 18% year-on-year decline in the average holiday travel budget, which now sits at $2,334.
Younger travellers — who for the first time represent half the holiday traveller base — are cutting the deepest. Gen Z budgets are down 31%, and millennials are tightening budgets significantly as well.
These travellers aren’t eliminating travel; they are finding other ways to reach their destination. More people will travel by road to save money: 57% of those choosing to drive instead of flying cite cost savings as the reason—up from 47% last year.
For price-sensitive travellers, especially families and young adults, the economics of holiday air travel are discouraging. Even loyalty-engaged travellers who identify strongly with airline brands could trade down. Deloitte notes that 37% of flyers this season plan to buy the lowest-priced ticket available, rather than selecting upgraded seating or fare bundles.
This shift poses obvious challenges for premium-seat monetisation. Boomers are the exception, with silver flyers planning to increase their travel spend by 4% compared to last year. Airlines may focus their premium marketing on attracting this cohort.
Airlines have invested heavily in the front of the aircraft, but now consumers are looking more closely at the back
After years of favourable conditions, US and global airlines have been racing to install new business class suites, reconfigure cabins with increased premium-economy sections, and upgrade domestic first-class seats. Much of this investment was predicated on the post-pandemic surge in premium leisure travel — a segment that appeared durable through 2023 and 2024. Deloitte’s 2025 data suggests that the high-flying times may once again be coming to an end.
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Featured Image: American Airlines
