Defence taking a more prominent role as Alderman & Company reflects on this year’s Farnborough International Airshow
Ryan Kirby of M&A firm Alderman & Company reveals how a 50/50 split between defence and commercial aviation on the Farnborough floor reflects a…
Ryan Kirby of M&A firm Alderman & Company reveals how a 50/50 split between defence and commercial aviation on the Farnborough floor reflects a wider shift into healthy valuations across the middle market.
This year’s Farnborough International Airshow was the biggest yet by the numbers: 1,600 exhibitors, 100,000 visitors, sold-out exhibition space and a sixth hall added to accommodate demand. But according to Ryan Kirby, Director at Alderman & Company, the more telling statistic is the balance of the show floor itself.
“This is one of the first times ever in Farnborough’s history where the make-up of the floor space is 50% defence and 50% commercial aviation,” Ryan Kirby told Aerospace Global News. “The typical make-up is more like 60-70% commercial aviation. It really shows the strength and growth of the defence sector.”
That growth is being underpinned by politics as much as by orders. With a new prime minister in Downing Street and the opposition pushing for defence spending to hit at least 3% of GDP, Kirby says the UK is mirroring a rising trend playing out across global markets.
Commercial aviation refocuses on production
On the commercial side, Kirby points to a market correcting itself after years of disruption, despite a notable lack of major orders as seen in previous years at Farnborough. Airbus and Boeing are working through well-documented production issues, and while firm orders haven’t matched the highs of 2014, 2016 or 2018, that’s less a sign of weakness than of discipline, as OEMs work to reduce their backlogs, according to Kirby.
“Commercial aviation is focused on production — that’s the laser focus,” Kirby said. Manufacturers have been carving out non-core businesses to concentrate on their production lines, generating a wave of M&A activity around OEM carve-outs as companies double down on core competencies.
Backlogs drive pricing power for defence suppliers
On the defence side, the picture is one of sustained demand. “Backlogs are at an all-time high, and our clients in the middle market are really trying to keep up and meet their customers’ demand,” Kirby said. That pressure is translating into gains for suppliers: shorter lead times, improved pricing power and optionality and the ability to expand into fast-growing adjacent markets. “Drones” added Kirby, “are prominent at this year’s show.”
He also noted, “There’s a lot of aerospace and defence components that can go onto existing systems, and adjacent markets are growing aggressively right now,” he added. “It’s an exciting time for our clients, which is translating into improved projection sets and improved substantiation around those projections.” This in turn, he said “means increased value.”
A “balanced” market, not a seller’s or buyer’s
For business owners weighing an exit, Kirby says it’s about identifying personal goals rather than market timing alone. “Do they want to retire? Do they want to sell 80% of their business and roll with an investor for the next few years and have another bite of the apple later down the line?” Increasingly, he says, companies are citing “great visibility” into future earnings and seeing attractive valuations they can achieve from that.
A recent Alderman & Partners survey backs that up: 70% of respondents described the current market as balanced, with 20% calling it a seller’s market and just 10% a buyer’s market — a spread Kirby says is a healthy sign. “When there’s a heavy skew to seller or buyer, deals don’t get done.”
The numbers reflect that balance. Q1 2026 saw a record number of aerospace and defence M&A deals in recent history – approaching 200. Kirby added that Q2 showed only a slight softening. “What we’re seeing is a healthy M&A market in which sellers and buyers are seeing value they can still grow on,” Kirby said. “The majority are saying that valuations right now in our space are healthy, and deals are getting done.”
