Aircraft shortage: Airlines are flying the oldest fleets in history as efficiency suffers
August 26, 2025
The world’s airlines are grappling with an unprecedented aircraft shortage that could last another decade, according to IATA’s latest fleet update.
The association warns of a “missing fleet” equivalent to more than 5,000 aircraft, as pandemic-era production gaps, deferred retirements and record order backlogs reshape global aviation.
IATA’s report, The global commercial aircraft fleet, counts 35,550 active aircraft. including 30,300 active units and 5,250 held in storage as of June 2025. Boeing and Airbus account for 80% of the active fleet.
Airlines are flying older fleets than ever before
The average age of the global commercial fleet has now reached 15 years: the oldest in aviation history. Before the pandemic, the figure stood at 13 years.
With new aircraft taking longer to arrive, airlines are holding onto older aircraft to meet surging demand for air travel. Examples range from LATAM’s Airbus A319 refurbishment to Emirates’ enormous $5 billion widebody refresh.
New generation aircraft like the A320neo, 737 MAX, A350 and 787 accounted for 26% of the fleet in 2024, up from just 11% in 2019. But the efficiency gains expected from these new airliners is not being realised, IATA says.
“[NextGen] aircraft offer substantial improvements in fuel burn per seat and per tonne,” the report says. “However, their positive impact has been diluted by the continued operation of older, less efficient models, which remain in service due to delivery delays and deferred retirements, thwarting the aggregate fleet-wide efficiency gains that otherwise would have occurred.”
5,000 aircraft missing and a record backlog
Between 2019 and 2021, COVID-19 forced OEMs to slash output and suppliers to downsize or exit the market. Since then, recovery has been painfully slow, with acute shortages of parts, engines, raw materials and skilled labour constraining the industry still.
In 2024, commercial aircraft deliveries reached 1,254 units, 30% lower than forecast at the start of the year. This year, 1,692 aircraft are projected to be delivered, the highest number since 2018, but still 26% lower than earlier forecasts had promised.
IATA says this has affected the trajectory of aircraft deliveries, projecting that had the pandemic never happened, an additional 5,264 aircraft would have arrived with airlines.
But there’s more than one way to measure an aircraft shortage, and perhaps most telling is the backlog. Historically, the number of undelivered aircraft has hovered around 40% of the in-service fleet. By mid-2025, that figure had ballooned to 58%, the highest on record.
Based on the current production capacity of about 2,100 aircraft per year, IATA estimates the imbalance will not normalise before 2031, and possibly as late as 2034 if order intake remains strong.
Aviation’s sustainability gains are being wiped out by old aircraft
This delayed transition to new technology efficiency has had a marked effect on sustainability efforts.
IATA notes that fuel consumption per available tonne-kilometre (ATK) flatlined in 2024, ending three decades of steady efficiency improvements.
“As a result of the higher share of older aircraft in active service, the long-standing trend of improving fuel efficiency in commercial aviation has stalled in recent years,” the association noted.
Gains from new aircraft technology, sustainable aviation fuels and operational measures are being offset by the continued reliance on older, thirstier jets.
The aircraft shortage will take years to normalise
The persistence of the shortage means the problem is not going away quickly. Even with utilisation at record levels – airlines flew an average of 54,000 ATK per aircraft in 2024, far above the long-term average – the structural deficit is too large to mask indefinitely.
Recent upticks in deliveries from Boeing and Airbus have provided hope that the industry is turning a corner, but IATA says it’s not enough.
“Despite signs of improvements in the supply chain, and some pick up in deliveries, the global aircraft shortage is not expected to normalise before 2031-2034, given the magnitude of the problem as it stands today,” IATA concludes. “The cumulative shortfall, estimated at over 5,000 aircraft, deferred retirements, and record backlogs have created a structural shift that is likely to take years to normalise.”
The association added that sustainable recovery would require a capacity ramp-up. This, it said, would be greatly aided by regulatory clarity, in particular, trade policies.
