Demand flat for regional aircraft as Covid effect persists, warns Embraer
Embraer says the structural shocks triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic continue to be leave their mark on the global aviation industry, with little change in demand expected for smaller, regional aircraft over the next two decades.
The Brazilian manufacturer has held firm on its long-term forecast for deliveries in the sub-150-seat category, publishing its 2025 Market Outlook ahead of the Paris Air Show next week.
The report predicts 10,500 new aircraft deliveries through to 2044, split between 8,720 jets and 1,780 turboprops.
That total is virtually unchanged from last year’s forecast, suggesting that recovery in the regional segment remains muted even as broader global air travel trends continue to rebound.
‘Structural changes to regional market are long lasting’
“Five years after the onset of the pandemic, many of the structural changes it triggered have proven to be quite long lasting,” said Arjan Meijer, Embraer president and CEO of Commercial Aviation.
“In our first post-pandemic Market Outlook, we highlighted the transition from globalisation to a more polarized geopolitical outlook.
“Today, as countries and regions pursue greater strategic autonomy, the demand for regional access will continue to grow.
“We believe mixed fleets that combine small and large narrowbody aircraft are essential for that long-term growth.
“They provide the versatility needed to better match capacity with demand, expand networks, and support national and regional development goals.”
This year’s report also includes detailed regional traffic growth projections, with China now broken out separately from Asia Pacific for the first time.
Passenger traffic worldwide is expected to rise at an average of 3.9% annually, led by China at 5.7%. That is followed by Latin America (4.7%), and Africa and the Middle East (both 4.4%). Europe and CIS stands at 3.1%. North America lags behind with a projected growth rate of just 2.4%.
By 2044, Embraer expects Asia Pacific to account for 39% of global revenue passenger kilometres (RPK). That is just ahead of Europe and North America combined at 37%.
In terms of market value, the 10,500 aircraft are expected to generate around $680 billion in sales.
North America is forecast to lead demand for regional jets, accounting for 30.7% of deliveries. Europe and the CIS follow, at 22.8%, and China at 17.2%
When it comes to turboprops, Asia Pacific is the dominant growth area, set to receive 36% of all deliveries.
