‘Seven tons of satellites’ to be launched daily over next decade
Novaspace, a leading space consulting and market intelligence firm, is forecasting a “record-breaking surge” in satellite demand through to 2033.
The company, a merger between Euroconsult and SpaceTec Partners, forecasts an average of over 3,700 satellites launched annually between 2024 and 2033 – equivalent to 10 satellites per day and totalling a mass of 7 tons – reflecting the growth of satellite-driven connectivity and data services.
Its latest report sheds light on the long-term dynamic of the satellite market, emphasising sustained demand and the changes of end users habits.
A report key finding is the growing concentration of satellite demand among a handful of mega-constellation operators. Respectively, four commercial broadband non-geostationary orbit (NGSO) mega constellations are transforming the landscape of satellite manufacturing and deployment, particularly in the pursuit of global connectivity.
Starlink, Kuiper, G60, and GuoWang constellations alone will account for 65% of the demand in number of satellites but only 14% to the overall manufacturing and launch value as their vertical integration will enable massive economies at scale.
In contrast, 2,900 satellites weighing more than 500 kg each and operated by 170 satellite operators, will represent 70% of the satellite manufacturing and launch market value but only 7% of the total number of satellites. This reflects the diversity of use cases, orbits, performance needs, mass, and form factors.
The report indicates that demand for commercial geostationary orbit (GEO) communication satellites will remain stable compared to the past 10 years, with an average of 12 yearly orders, while the combined manufacturing and launch value is expected to decline by 25%, driven by a wider variety of satellites, including smaller assets.
Furthermore, recently successful mergers and acquisitions between GEO comsat satellite operators Viasat – Inmarsat and Eutelsat – OneWeb, as well as ongoing negotiations between companies like SES and Intelsat , will lead to fleet rationalization and multi-orbits strategies.
On the government side, civil and defence agencies from the six leading space-faring public bodies alone (U.S, China, EU, ESA, India, and Japan) will concentrate two-thirds of the demand in manufacturing and launch market value.
The growing market dominance of a few large commercial satellite operators could exert pressure on both smaller competitors and suppliers. Established satellite manufacturers, already grappling with cost pressures and demands for greater efficiency, may face further margin compression as these major operators push for more favorable pricing. As a result, mergers or partnerships among satellite manufacturers may become essential to stay competitive.
Maxime Puteaux, principal at Novaspace and editor of the report, said: “The growing concentration of demand from a small number of vertically integrated customers, along with end-user requirements for cost effective services, will push towards consolidation across the value chain, from satellite operators to their suppliers.”
He added: “However, while the demand for satellites is booming, the industry faces substantial challenges in terms of manufacturing capacity, launch infrastructure, and market concentration. Although the end of the scarcity of Western launchers is approaching, it has yet to significantly impact the ongoing bottlenecks and challenge SpaceX’s dominance.”
