William Alderman on Boeing woes, geopolitical tensions and tariffs shaking the industry
Alongside the excitement of the deals that rolled in at this year’s Paris Air Show, Boeing’s struggles, global geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns remain cause for concern across the sector. One man with his finger on the pulse is M&A specialist, William “Bill” Alderman, founding partner of Alderman & Co. He sat down with Aerospace Global News during Paris Air Show last week to share his perspectives on the industry.
“I’ve been coming to this show for nearly three decades and there are some issues we need to cover, but overall it’s been a good show. People are upbeat, they are positive. There’s a good vibe across the show floor,” Alderman said.
He added, that in particular “it’s been an outstanding week so far for Airbus.” The French manufacturer has dominated order announcements this week securing multi-billion dollar deals with airlines, including Riyadh Air, Vietjet and AviaLease.
“The world loves the Airbus product line,” he continued. “Yes, there are issues with Airbus ramping up production as quickly as they would like, and we’re speaking with supply chain companies feeling that pressure. But overall, these are really good times for Airbus.”
Boeing’s ongoing struggles
In contrast, Boeing has maintained a pared back presence at this year’s show, a reflection of the challenges it faces following the tragic Air India crash on 12 June. “Boeing has had a tough run recently,” Alderman said. “CEO, Kelly Ortberg, has done a lot of good things to right the ship, but the ship was in trouble.”
He also cautioned against speculating about the 787 incident. “There’s plenty of video footage circulating, but that’s not sufficient to draw any conclusions. We live with science and facts. But they’re very limited right now,” he said referencing videos that are circulating online showing that the landing gear was still down and a mayday call saying there wasn’t enough thrust. “But that’s not enough to make an investigation. We simply don’t have all the facts yet. Someday soon we will know what happened to that aircraft with scientific certainty. It may mean there was a mechanical design flaw with the aircraft, but it also may mean it has nothing to do with Boeing.”
Tariff concerns
On the topic of US tariffs, Alderman explained that although there has been concern the actual economic impact of the tariffs have yet to be felt.
“We have clients on both sides of the US political spectrum – the Democrats and the Republicans. I won’t make a political comment, but in terms of an economic impact, the reality is nothing has happened yet. There has been plenty of talk, but in practice very few of our clients have seen a tariff line appear on an invoice. Most people on the floor here are ignoring tariffs because there’s nothing there.”
Still the anxiety is real “with many worried that the tariffs could eventually materialise in a way that does impact their business.”
The critical role of AI in modern warfare
Turning to defence and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Alderman highlighted that “war is tragic and we all agree it needs to stop.”
He also noted that there is a growing need to ensure that the Western world, the US and its NATO allies have a robust defence system in place.
With the growing geopolitical tensions a major influence on the defence sector Alderman underlined the evolving role of artificial intelligence and machine learning in modern warfare. Referencing Iran’s recent missile strikes on Tel Aviv on 16 June, he noted, “the Israelis have a great defence system” with the Iron Dome. Despite the swarm of missiles, Israel’s air defence system repelled the barrage of projectiles. “If you see how fast the missiles come and how fast Israel’s defence system reacts, there’s no way a human could have had anything to do with that response,” he added.
“We are entering an era where humans are no longer in the kill loop,” he said. “The speed at which offensive and defensive systems now operate means there’s no time for human-decision making. Machine learning and AI are becoming critical at least on the defensive side. We’re entering a realm where software and AI that enables our weapons to move at non-human speeds is required to defend our civilisations,” he concluded.
