Will Ukraine’s Fighting Falcons make a difference?
August 7, 2024
The F-16AMs now being delivered to Ukraine will mark an improvement over the Ukrainian Air Force’s first generation MiG-29s and Su-27s. They will be significantly easier to support, sustain, arm, equip and upgrade, with a solid Western supply chain, and with no need for the hasty, improvised integration of key Western weapons that we have seen up to now.
The F-16s delivered to Ukraine will benefit from a significant package of advanced weapons from the US, and have already been seen carrying advanced Western weapons including the AIM-120 C-8 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM) and the AIM-9M Sidewinder missiles (but not yet the expected AIM-9X versions). These do represent a significant improvement over the first generation R-27 and R-73 (AA-10 ‘Alamo’ and AA-11 ‘Archer’) missiles used by Ukrainian MiGs and Sukhois, but may not match (or out-reach) the advanced weapons used by opposing Russian fighters. AGM-88 HARM air-to-surface anti-radar missiles are also expected to be supplied, along with a variety of air-to-surface weapons.
Crucially, any missile is only as good as the launch aircraft’s sensor suite. For the Within Visual Range ‘dogfight’, the Ukrainian F-16s will have helmet mounted sighting systems, which promise to give a robust ‘off boresight’ capability, allowing Ukrainian pilots to engage targets well off the nose. But for Beyond Visual Range engagements, the F-16AM is limited to a mechanically scanned Westinghouse AN/APG-66(V2) Fire Control Radar. Mechanically scanned radars are unable to produce a ‘weapons quality track’ at the range that electronically scanned radars can, meaning that the F-16s will be vulnerable to enemy long range missile shots. An AESA radar upgrade is available for the F-16, and this would transform the aircraft’s air-to-air capabilities.
As former Royal Danish Air Force aircraft, some of the Ukrainian F-16s are equipped with the Elbit/Terma Pylon Integrated Dispensing System (PIDS) and the Electronic Combat Integrated Pylon System (ECIPS). PIDS dispenses strips of metallic chaff and IR decoy flares to confuse the seekers of incoming radar- and infrared-guided missiles. The ECIPS system uses passive systems, including an AN/ALQ-162 jammer and an AN/AAR-60 missile approach warning system. Together, the systems promise to provide comprehensive protection against a wide array of enemy missile threats.
Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that: “of course, these deliveries will not have any significant impact on the development of events on the front.” He threatened that Ukraine’s F-16s would quickly be “shot down”
