Countdown to clean orbits: How ESA and industry plan to solve the orbital debris crisis
November 29, 2025
This analysis is co-authored by Richard Jacklin, Commercial Lead at Plextek, and James Snape, Founder and CEO of Aphelion Industries. Jacklin works with satellite operators, aerospace firms and space agencies on sensing systems that improve mission safety and orbital sustainability. Snape is an impact-focused space and defence innovator with deep experience in developing “generation-after-next” technologies. Together, they offer a dual perspective on the race toward a debris-neutral orbit.
Space is rapidly becoming one of the world’s most congested frontiers. What was once a domain of scientific exploration is now a crowded commercial arena, an essential global infrastructure layer for communications, navigation, climate monitoring, and defence. Yet this dependence is threatened by a growing, largely invisible hazard: orbital debris.
The European Space Agency’s Zero Debris Technical Booklet is an ambitious and welcome step toward addressing this challenge. It provides a framework for achieving a debris-neutral orbital environment by 2030, outlining the technical priorities needed to safeguard access to space for future generations.
But strategy alone is not enough. Delivering the Zero Debris Vision will ultimately depend on the industry’s ability to shift from commitment to capability, from policy to implementation, as Richard Jacklin, Commercial Lead for Space at Plextek, and James Snape, Founder of Aphelion Industries, explore.
Read more: The new danger of space debris – Dead satellites are polluting Earth’s upper atmosphere
The scale of Earth’s orbital debris problem
The data is stark. The number of active satellites orbiting Earth is projected to surge from around 12,000 today to over 40,000 by the early 2030s. With each new launch, the risk of collision rises exponentially.
Current estimates put annual losses from space debris collisions at around $100 million, most occurring between 600 and 900 kilometres — the same orbital band where much of our critical infrastructure resides. By 2030, this figure could exceed $1 billion per year.
Even if launches stopped tomorrow, orbital debris would still multiply for years. Over 140 million fragments smaller than one centimetre now orbit Earth, alongside more than 1.2 million pieces between one and ten centimetres. Only about 1% can be reliably tracked. Small does not mean harmless: ESA previously found a 7mm chip in an International Space Station window caused by a fragment possibly no larger than a paint flake.
Most of the threat is therefore invisible, leaving the industry reliant on theoretical models rather than sustained in-orbit observation. Without better data, enforcement becomes guesswork, and risk management slips into reactive mode.
From policy to practice: What zero debris requires
ESA’s Zero Debris Vision sets six priority goals: preventing debris release, ensuring end-of-life clearance, preventing break-ups, improving surveillance, avoiding ground casualties, and mitigating adverse consequences. These are engineering and operational challenges, not abstract ambitions.
Meeting them requires a systems approach built on three pillars:
- Prevention, through responsible design, modular architecture, and dependable de-orbit systems.
- Protection, through lighter, smarter shielding and redundancy to limit fragmentation.
- Prediction, through real-time situational awareness and in-orbit measurement of debris density and trajectories.
Zero debris will not be achieved by any single technology. It depends on integrating these capabilities into a resilient operational ecosystem of satellites that can detect, avoid, and withstand both trackable and untrackable threats.
This must be supported by transparent data-sharing frameworks and open innovation partnerships spanning commercial, defence, and scientific sectors.
The economics of space debris:
Why inaction is no longer an option
The financial stakes extend far beyond spacecraft operators. The space insurance market illustrates the risk. Out of roughly 13,000 active satellites, only around 300 are insured, and most collision-related losses are excluded. Where risk cannot be quantified, insurers retreat, premiums rise, and investment slows.
During the 2018–2019 insurance crisis, underwriters paid out more than they earned, forcing some to withdraw from the Low Earth Orbit market entirely. The message was clear: unreliable data and limited survivability make space increasingly uninsurable.
The economic case for action is overwhelming. Investment in resilient, debris-aware systems reduces volatility, strengthens investor confidence, and ensures that access to orbit remains commercially viable. In contrast, the cost of inaction could be catastrophic. OECD modelling suggests a Kessler Syndrome event could inflict USD $191 billion in immediate losses, with long-term economic drag approaching 2% of global GDP.
Policy gaps: when ambition outpaces investment
ESA has succeeded in setting the agenda, but funding and implementation lag behind. National budgets highlight this gap. The UK Space Agency’s 2025/26 plan allocates just £4 million to In-Orbit Servicing, Assembly and Manufacturing — less than 1% of its budget — despite acknowledging its importance to space sustainability. Across Europe, similar mismatches persist.
Policymakers will need to embrace dual-use innovation, recognising that technologies developed for defence, communications, in-space manufacturing, or lunar exploration can also serve debris mitigation. Likewise, space-safety systems should be recognised as national security infrastructure.
New funding models — including public-private partnerships and incentive-based frameworks — will be essential to accelerate real-world deployment.
A critical decision window: why the next 24 months matter
The next two years will determine whether ESA’s 2030 Zero Debris target is met or missed by a generation. Mega-constellations are expanding rapidly, injecting thousands of new satellites into crowded orbital lanes. This growth enables global connectivity but also heightens the risk of collision cascades that could make key orbital regions unusable.
If industry acts now — deploying measurement instruments, enhancing shielding, sharing data, and standardising end-of-life procedures — the 2030 milestone remains attainable. If not, orbital degradation may become irreversible.
The time to act is now
ESA’s Zero Debris Vision represents more than a regulatory goal. It is a test of global innovation and responsibility. The technology exists. The expertise exists. What remains is the will — political, industrial, and financial — to deploy it at scale and speed.
The orbital environment humanity inherits in 2030 will reflect decisions made in the next 12 to 24 months. The window for preventative action is closing fast.
A debris-neutral future will not be delivered through statements or conferences, but through coordinated implementation across agencies, governments, and industry. Only decisive action will keep space sustainable, secure, and accessible for all.
