eVTOLs: Flying high on ambition, grounded in reality
Mustafa Bilal is a Research Assistant at the Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS), Islamabad. He can be reached at cass.thinkers@casstt.com
Electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles (eVTOLs) were once just a futuristic concept in PowerPoint presentations. But now, breakthroughs in advanced avionics, electric propulsion, battery technologies, and AI-augmented flight control have enabled eVTOLs to become practical prototypes.
Over the past year, eVTOL companies have entered into mainstream aviation discussions with a momentum that few fully understand and even fewer anticipated just a few years ago.
Across the world, investors are pouring billions into eVTOL companies that are progressively developing their prototypes, and governments are expediting the associated certification processes.
Similarly, the defence sector has also increasingly recognised the potential military utility of eVTOLs.
Urban Air Mobility: A promising future, but huge amounts of work required
Perhaps the most significant promise of eVTOLs lies in Urban Air Mobility (UAM). Like railways in the 19th century or highways in the 20th, urban air mobility is the eVTOL industry’s most ambitious goal.
Even for citizens of developed states, it seems like a utopian dream: sitting in flying cars hovering above busy traffic lanes to reach the workplace in a fraction of the time. Many companies in the industry are aiming to be the first Uber in the skies, transforming congested cities into vertically layered networks of mobility with on-demand aerial transport.
Although affordability remains an open question, industry representatives acknowledge that they will initially target higher-income travellers. For those in a hurry, the value proposition will be measured by the miles travelled and minutes saved.
In addition to affordability, perceived trust grounded in aviation safety will be a major concern in shaping public attitudes towards adopting eVTOLs, especially those with autonomous operations. This concern has gained heightened significance in light of increasing aviation incidents, as well as mishaps experienced by several eVTOLs during flight tests.
Although eVTOLs are expected to have cutting-edge safety features and built-in operational redundancies, public acceptance will depend on how manufacturers address not only technical hurdles but also cultural differences. Educational campaigns, public demonstrations, and pilot programmes will be essential in overcoming the psychological barriers to eVTOL adaptation.
The biggest challenge for urban air mobility is the extensive overhaul of urban infrastructure required to support the industry. From establishing Vertiports and charging hubs to developing a digitised air traffic system with designated low-altitude corridors capable of managing thousands of eVTOLs, the scale of this infrastructural revamp is immense. It would also require unprecedented degrees of coordination between aviation regulators, local governments, and eVTOL companies.
More promising: Hybrid VTOLs for military applications
Infrastructure challenges have not deterred the development of hybrid VTOLs for military applications.
The US Air Force’s Agile Support program is exploring the potential military applications of hybrid eVTOLs, and several of the major players are already working on solutions.
eVTOLs offer an attractive platform for the military. Agile, mission-customisable, with minimal acoustic and heat signatures, rapidly deployed and autonomously operated, independent of runways… such characteristics are ideal for battlefield logistics and stealthy evacuations.
However, not everyone believes eVTOLs are a gold-plated opportunity for military modernisation. Well-known veteran, award-winning journalist and aerospace industry executive Bill Sweetman argued that they are slow and heavy, and that they will be too difficult to fly and control. Crucially, he predicted that the complex landing downwash would kick up far more debris than a conventional helicopter, which is not ideal for a military operation.
Regardless of doubts, investment continues to flood into eVTOL
Despite some valid concerns about the future of eVTOLs, a surge in private investments and government interest reflects growing confidence in their commercial viability.
Earlier this year, Bank of America forecast the eVTOL market to expand at an 85% compound annual growth rate between 2025 and 2040. Even established giants in the automotive industry are backing leading eVTOL companies or developing their prototypes.
Interestingly, there is a striking divergence in the design philosophy of the dozens of models being developed across the United States, Europe, and China. The design pluralism reflects a nascent industry working on various concepts, with varying efficiencies and cost-effectiveness. The diversity in design concepts could also reflect the multiplicity of potential applications, which highlights that the industry is not hedging its bets on a single use case.
Regulatory progress is also gradually catching up with technological advances in the eVTOL industry. The Civil Aviation Administration in China has been accelerating the regulatory certification of eVTOLs. Just as it spearheaded the EV revolution, China is also at the forefront of the eVTOL revolution. Meanwhile, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) have also made progress on eVTOL certification, but they lag behind China.
However, once the rate of certifications accelerates, eVTOLs will significantly widen the global digital divide as their development and deployment will be concentrated in a few developed states for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, most developing states have only recently started transitioning to EVs and formulating guidelines to facilitate their adoption.
Moreover, they are still struggling with the infrastructural requirements accompanying the rollout of EVs, and are unlikely to undergo the infrastructural overhaul required to adopt eVTOLs anytime soon.
From a broader perspective, despite the optimism spurred by recent technological advancements in the eVTOL industry, there are still infrastructural, societal, and regulatory challenges accompanying the development, deployment, and public adoption of eVTOLs, both in developed states and even more so in developing states.
How the sector navigates these hurdles will determine whether this electric aviation revolution can sustain its lift or lose altitude under the weight of its ambitions.
