Ryanair blames Boeing strike for revised 2026 growth projections
November 4, 2024
Despite operating its largest ever schedule in the summer of 2024 – welcoming a record 20.5 million passengers aboard its flights in August alone – Ryanair remains concerned of the impact that ongoing Boeing manufacturing woes will have to its growth.
Although the airline reported a 9% growth in traffic (rising to 115 million flights) in the last six months “despite repeated Boeing delivery delays,” Ryanair nevertheless remains realistic that its eleven MAX-8 aircraft due to be delivered in Q3 will inevitably slip. Having only received two units, “we now expect our remaining nine Q3 deliveries to slip into Q4 due to recent Boeing strikes,” clarified Ryanair, which currently has 172 of what it calls ‘gamechanger’ 737 aircraft in its total fleet of 608.
Accordingly, while Ryanair notes it continues “to work with Boeing leadership to accelerate aircraft deliveries ahead of peak [summer] 2025, the risk of further delivery delays remains high” – leaving Ryanair to conclude it is “therefore sensible to moderate Ryanair’s full year 2026 growth target to 210 million passengers (previously 215 million)”. However, “subject to no worsening of current Boeing delivery delays,” the airline nevertheless expects to carry 115.3 million passengers in the first half of 2025 (up from 105.4 million in the first six months of 2024).
Although Ryanair noted that some “modest delay compensation” was received in H1 2024, CEO Michael O’Leary added that “this does not offset the substantial impact of a five million plus passenger shortfall in full year 2025 due to these delivery delays”.
Admittedly, it’s not only Boeing-specific consequences that are potentially curtailing Ryanair’s ambitious expansion plans, with the airline concluding: “we expect European short-haul capacity to remain constrained for some years as many of Europe’s Airbus operators work through the Pratt & Whitney engine repairs, both major OEMs struggle with delivery backlogs, and airline consolidation continues”. However, despite slower-than-expected growth, Ryanair still “[continues] to target between 198 million and 200 million passengers in full year 2025”.
