Shoot or escort? NATO split over how to respond to Russian airspace incursions
September 25, 2025
The debate about NATO shooting down intruding Russian fighter jets increased following more Russian violations and President Trump’s apparent approval to engage them.
Sharp rise in Russian aircraft violating NATO airspace in September
In recent weeks, NATO airspace has been repeatedly violated by Russian drones and Russian fighter jets. On 19th September, three armed Russian MiG-31 fighter jets flew in Estonian airspace for 12 minutes. NATO fighter jets scrambled to intercept the jets.
Russia has continued to deny the incursions, saying the stories of the fighter jets violating Estonian airspace are made up and that the drones were off course, maybe due to jamming.
Many NATO members, like Poland, have said the drones were deliberately sent into Polish airspace. While Poland shot down the intruding drones, Romania scrambled its F-16 fighter jets and followed the drones until they left the country. NATO countries have also restricted airspace on the border with Russia.
Following a violation of Estonian air space, Swedish JAS 39 fighters intercepted and monitored three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets over the Baltic Sea today. Sweden is always ready to ensure the safety, security and integrity of our airspace together with our allies.#WeAreNATO pic.twitter.com/gpTbmngiKc
— Försvarsmakten (@Forsvarsmakten) September 19, 2025
Some NATO countries view Russia as testing the resolve of the alliance and just how much NATO will defend “every inch” of its territory. The fear for some is that if intruding Russian jets are not shot down, then it will undermine the credibility of the alliance and encourage Russia to probe even more.
Calls to shoot down Russian jets
On 23rd September, US President Donald Trump appeared to have renewed faith in Ukraine’s ability to fight Russia and retake all of its lost territory. He went as far on a Truth Social post as to call Russia a “paper tiger,” noting that any “real military power” would have been able to subdue Ukraine in less than a week. The war has been raging for 3.5 years now.
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) September 23, 2025
When asked if he thought NATO should shoot down Russian fighter jets that violate NATO airspace, he replied, “Yes, I do”.
Meanwhile, Politico quoted European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday, saying that shooting down Russian jets violating NATO airspace is “on the table.” The commissioner said, “My opinion is we have to defend every square centimetre of the territory.”
Before the Trump comment, Polish Foreign Affairs Minister Radosław Sikorski addressed Russia at the UN Security Council, saying he had one request. That request was that if Russia flies its aircraft over Poland without permission, “either deliberately or by mistake” (shaking his head sacastically with the word ‘mistake’), then Russia should not go to the Security Council to “whine about it.”
Roger that. https://t.co/SPs85U7yPd
— Radosław Sikorski 🇵🇱🇪🇺 (@sikorskiradek) September 23, 2025
Later, Sikorski replied to a clip of Trump’s comment to shoot down Russian aircraft, “Roger that.”
Still, there are many in NATO fearful of an escalation with Russia and would rather intercept and escort them than engage them.
As breaking news at the time of writing, the US Air Force has scrambled to intercept two Russian Tu-95 strategic bombers and two Su-35s flying near Alaska.
Are NATO countries legally allowed to shoot down intruding aircraft?
Under international law, states have complete sovereignty over their airspace. Article 51 of the UN Charter gives nations the right to self-defence, and the Chicago Convention forbids foreign state aircraft from entering without permission.
The key legal tests are necessity and proportionality. If an intruding jet is armed, ignores warnings, or threatens civilians, force can be justified. If it strays briefly without hostile intent, best practice is to intercept and escort.
NATO rules of engagement, therefore, do permit shootdowns, but only as a last resort after warnings and visual intercepts.
Across the NATO nations, there are mixed opinions about the right way to deal with Russian incursions:
- Poland – Already shooting down Russian drones, pressing NATO to take firmer action.
- Baltic states – Push for strong deterrence, seeing violations as deliberate pressure.
- Romania – Scrambles fighters to shadow intruders but avoids firing.
- Sweden and Finland – Ready to defend sovereignty, but so far using intercepts only.
- Germany, France, UK – Advocate restraint, warning that one shootdown could spiral.
- United States – Trump says “yes”, but the official Pentagon stance emphasises de-escalation unless directly threatened.
This east–west split reflects geography: exposed frontline states want harder deterrence, while Western powers focus on avoiding escalation.
Precedent for shooting down Russian jets violating NATO airspace
On 24 November 2015, Turkey, a NATO member, shot down a Russian Sukhoi Su-24M attack aircraft as it violated its border with Syria. Russia was fighting the Syrian rebels that Turkey was supporting.
Turkey claimed the Russian jet had flown up to 2.19 kilometres into its airspace for 17 seconds after being warned to change course. The aircraft was shot down by a Turkish F-16 Fighting Falcon. Both crew ejected, although one was shot and killed by Syrian rebels.
While the incident caused diplomatic repercussions, ultimately, Russia backed down and did not take military action against Turkey. Russia was careful not to violate its airspace again.
There are other examples of aircraft being shot down after violating national airspace. One little-known incident was in 1995, when a Greek Mirage 2000 shot down a Turkish F-16D after it violated its airspace over the Aegean Sea.
This is the only confirmed occasion of an F-16 being shot down in an air-to-air engagement, and bizarrely, it took place between two supposedly NATO allies.
