Airbus: global fleet to nearly double by 2043
With the global air transportation industry having “proved its resilience” over the last four years, Airbus has highlighted that the global fleet in service is set to nearly double by 2043 compared to the beginning of 2024; marking continued post-pandemic growth.
Airbus’ Global Market Forecast for the 2024-2043 period identifies the need for nearly 42,500 new aircraft by 2043, of which 33,510 will be single aisle and 8,920 will be widebodies. The freighter sector will also see a demand of 2,470 deliveries, of which 940 will be new-build. Around 45% of new deliveries will be to replace older or less efficient aircraft, a short-term priority for meeting decarbonisation objectives.
However, even with 5,800 of today’s aircraft still in operation in 2043 – and an estimated 18,460 units to be replaced – that leaves a total of 42,430 new deliveries in the next two decades. As of the end of 2023, existing single-aisle and widebody backlogs stood at 13,070 and 1,850 respectively.
The Middle East region represents the highest anticipated growth in demand (up 42%), followed by Europe at 24%. Although projected elevated demand is forecast globally, Latin America projections show the slowest growth, at just 10%.
Noting that with traffic and airline operations now “broadly back to pre-Covid levels or higher with a few exceptions,” Airbus is using 2023 as its baseline year for traffic and fleet for the first time since 2019. “This experience has highlighted once more the vital role played by aviation in connecting people and communities and as a catalyst for trade between them,” the airframer concludes.
