UK watchdog labels Tempest/GCAP sixth-generation programme as high-risk “RED”
August 25, 2025
UK watchdog, NISTA, used it “RED” label for the Tempest/GCAP program, highlighting the immense challenges of the program. The Tempest is expected to enter service in 2035 and replace the RAF’s Typhoon fighter jets.
UK watchdog labels Tempest/GCAP program as “RED”
The United Kingdom’s newly-established National Infrastructure and Service Transformation Authority (NISTA) watchdog has labeled the Tempest/GCAP sixth-generation fighter as “RED” in its Delivery Confidence Assessment. NISTA lists the jet under its official name “FCAS”, which is confusing, as that is also the name for the unrelated Franco-German sixth-generation fighter jet program.
NISTA says, “This is primarily due to the following factors. This is a reflection of the programme’s relative maturity, its scale, pace and the complex challenges involved in the successful long-term delivery of a 6th generation combat aircraft.” It adds, “as such, a confidence of Red is not unexpected.”
It notes that there have been significant achievements in the program with Japan and Italy. However, confidence is limited because the project remains “in the early stages of development, and there is recognition of the scale of the challenges faced to stand up a programme of this nature.”
Meanwhile, BAE Systems is now constructing the first demonstrator, which is expected to take its maiden flight in 2027.
Not doomed to failure
The “RED” label does not mean the program is doomed to failure. Indeed, NISTA says “Actions are being taken to address this at the start of the programme by learning the lessons of the past and from similarly large and complex projects.”
Similarly, Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow for the think-tank RUSI, recorded a video in 2023 explaining his plea that if the UK wanted to develop GCAP, it should not skimp on the funding. He argued the program would be expensive and would require commitment from its participants.
Even though the UK, Japan, and Italy are three wealthy countries with highly developed aerospace sectors, the task before them is so formidable that they are looking for more partners to invest in it. Sweden was previously seen as a possible candidate, and there has been some talk about India joining.
Perhaps the most likely fourth partner is Saudi Arabia, which has the money to provide the project with much-needed cash. The Japan Times reported in July 2025 that the trio is in “…tacit agreement that Saudi Arabia could be allowed to join their fighter aircraft development program — but only once the multibillion-dollar project is well underway…”
Only the US and China can comfortably go alone
Producing next-generation fighter jets is hard and can strain any country’s aerospace sector to the breaking point. Japan started to go it alone with the Mitsubishi F-X, but abandoned the effort to join the UK-Italian Tempest/GCAP project.
France has been forced to partner with Germany to develop a sixth-generation fighter jet, something the French industry is unhappy about, but has little choice but to accept.
Meanwhile, Russia is unable to ramp up production of its fifth-generation Sukhoi Su-57 Felon. Russia also appears unable to source the needed Western components for the Felon to operate at its advertised capabilities.
Perhaps the only two countries with the resources, industry base, and funds that can comfortably develop sixth-generation fighter jets are the United States and China. China has recently flown three types of tailess fighters in public, while the US is debating if its base is big enough to develop the Air Force’s F-47 and Navy’s F/A-XX simultaneously.
It should be noted that not all “sixth-generation” projects are created equal, and they are made for different roles. The US Air Force is only expected to acquire 185+ incredibly expensive but extremely capable F-47s. A very low number by US Air Force standards. By comparison, Airforce Technology reported GCAP is eyeing a production run of 350 aircraft.
